用六边形网格生成轨迹,预测更准且省资源。
TrajLearn: Trajectory Prediction Learning using Deep Generative Models
- 基于六边形空间表示,建模高阶移动流
- 多路径搜索提升预测准确率,最高增40%
- 支持区域分级细化,适合城市与乡村混合场景
轨迹预测旨在利用当前位置和历史运动数据预估实体未来路径,对自动驾驶、机器人和人类行为分析等应用至关重要。深度学习方法虽已成主流,但难以处理复杂空间依赖和动态环境变化。为此,我们提出TrajLearn,一种基于六边形空间表示的生成式轨迹预测模型,通过定制化束搜索探索多条潜在路径并保持空间连续性,预测未来k步。在多个真实轨迹数据集上评估显示,其性能较现有方法提升最高达~40%。我们还测试了不同预测时长(k值)、分辨率敏感性,并进行消融实验验证关键组件影响。此外,我们设计了一种新型算法,通过分层细分六边形单元生成混合分辨率地图,仅对重点区域(如城市中心)使用细粒度表示,其余区域则采用粗粒度,有效降低存储与计算开销。代码、数据及详细文档均已公开,支持灵活配置,便于复现与迁移。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Trajectory prediction aims to estimate an entity's future path using its current position and historical movement data, benefiting fields like autonomous navigation, robotics, and human movement analytics. Deep learning approaches have become key in this area, utilizing large-scale trajectory datasets to model movement patterns, but face challenges in managing complex spatial dependencies and adapting to dynamic environments. To address these challenges, we introduce TrajLearn, a novel model for trajectory prediction that leverages generative modeling of higher-order mobility flows based on hexagonal spatial representation. TrajLearn predicts the next $k$ steps by integrating a customized beam search for exploring multiple potential paths while maintaining spatial continuity. We conducted a rigorous evaluation of TrajLearn, benchmarking it against leading state-of-the-art approaches and meaningful baselines. The results indicate that TrajLearn achieves significant performance gains, with improvements of up to ~40% across multiple real-world trajectory datasets. In addition, we evaluated different prediction horizons (i.e., various values of $k$), conducted resolution sensitivity analysis, and performed ablation studies to assess the impact of key model components. Furthermore, we developed a novel algorithm to generate mixed-resolution maps by hierarchically subdividing hexagonal regions into finer segments within a specified observation area. This approach supports selective detailing, applying finer resolution to areas of interest or high activity (e.g., urban centers) while using coarser resolution for less significant regions (e.g., rural areas), effectively reducing data storage requirements and computational overhead. We promote reproducibility and adaptability by offering complete code, data, and detailed documentation with flexible configuration options for various applications.
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