用校准预测缩小答案范围,让大模型更准地做决策。
Prune 'n Predict: Optimizing LLM Decision-making with Conformal Prediction
- 通过校准预测生成答案集合,再缩减问题选项重问模型。
- 结合优化评分策略后,答案集更小且准确率提升显著。
- 适合医疗、金融等对错误容忍度极低的高风险场景。
大语言模型在工具调用和多选题回答等决策任务中广泛应用,但在医疗、金融等高风险领域,错误输出可能带来严重后果。为量化模型不确定性,本文采用无需依赖模型或分布的校准预测(CP)框架,生成包含真实答案的高置信度答案集合。提出“问题校准重述”(CROQ)方法:将原问题中的选项缩小至预测集合内,重新提问模型。预期在选项减少后模型表现更优。然而,传统基于对数概率的得分常导致集合过大,削弱效果。为此,提出CP-OPT优化框架,学习能最小化集合大小同时保持覆盖率的评分函数。在MMLU、ToolAlpaca和TruthfulQA多个数据集上,使用多种大模型进行实验,结果表明CROQ显著提升标准推理准确率,尤其搭配CP-OPT时增益更明显。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Large language models (LLMs) are empowering decision-making in several applications, including tool or API usage and answering multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, incorrect outputs pose significant risks in high-stakes domains like healthcare and finance. To quantify LLM uncertainty and thereby mitigate these risks, recent works employ conformal prediction (CP), a model- and distribution-agnostic framework that uses LLM outputs to generate a \emph{prediction set} containing the true answer with high probability. Leveraging CP, we propose \emph{conformal revision of questions} (CROQ), which revises the question by narrowing down the available choices to those in the prediction set and asking the LLM the revised question. We expect LLMs to be more accurate on revised questions with fewer choices. Furthermore, we expect CROQ to be effective when the prediction sets from CP are small. Commonly used logit scores often lead to large sets, diminishing CROQ's effectiveness. To overcome this, we propose CP-OPT, an optimization framework to learn scores that minimize set sizes while maintaining coverage. Our extensive experiments on MMLU, ToolAlpaca, and TruthfulQA datasets with multiple LLMs show that CROQ improves accuracy over the standard inference, with more pronounced gains when paired with CP-OPT.
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