用人工智能构建贝叶斯生成模型,更准估算个体治疗效果。
An AI-powered Bayesian generative modeling approach for causal inference in observational studies
- 通过学习低维潜在特征的个体化后验分布估计治疗效应
- 在高维协变量下显著优于现有方法,且提供校准的置信区间
- 适合处理大规模数据的因果推断,尤其适用于复杂依赖场景
高维协变量下的观察性研究因果推断面临巨大挑战。本文提出CausalBGM,一种基于人工智能的贝叶斯生成建模方法,用于捕捉协变量、处理和结果间的因果关系。核心创新在于通过学习驱动处理与结果变化的低维潜在特征(如潜在混杂因素)的个体特定分布,来估计个体处理效应(ITE)。该个体化后验表示可同时提供准确的ITE估计与校准的后验区间,有效缓解混杂影响。CausalBGM采用迭代算法更新模型参数与潜在特征直至收敛。该框架结合了人工智能对复杂变量依赖关系的建模能力与贝叶斯原则。大量实验表明,CausalBGM在高维协变量和大规模数据场景下持续优于当前最优方法。通过解决现有方法的关键局限,CausalBGM成为现代应用中推进因果推断的稳健且有前景的框架。代码已公开于https://github.com/liuq-lab/bayesgm,使用文档见https://bayesgm.readthedocs.io。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Causal inference in observational studies with high-dimensional covariates presents significant challenges. We introduce CausalBGM, an AI-powered Bayesian generative modeling approach that captures the causal relationship among covariates, treatment, and outcome. The core innovation is to estimate the individual treatment effect (ITE) by learning the individual-specific distribution of a low-dimensional latent feature set (e.g., latent confounders) that drives changes in both treatment and outcome. This individualized posterior representation yields estimates of the individual treatment effect (ITE) together with well-calibrated posterior intervals while mitigating confounding effect. CausalBGM is fitted through an iterative algorithm to update the model parameters and the latent features until convergence. This framework leverages the power of AI to capture complex dependencies among variables while adhering to the Bayesian principles. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CausalBGM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, particularly in scenarios with high-dimensional covariates and large-scale datasets. By addressing key limitations of existing methods, CausalBGM emerges as a robust and promising framework for advancing causal inference in a wide range of modern applications. The code for CausalBGM is available at https://github.com/liuq-lab/bayesgm. The document for using CausalBGM is available at https://bayesgm.readthedocs.io.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。