GLinear通过周期模式建模,用更少历史数据实现更高时序预测精度。
Bridging Simplicity and Sophistication using GLinear: A Novel Architecture for Enhanced Time Series Prediction
- 基于高斯激活的线性架构,利用周期性特征增强时序关系捕捉
- 在4个数据集上优于或媲美主流线性与Transformer模型,且数据需求更低
- 适合追求高效、低资源但高精度的时序预测场景
时序预测在多个领域具有重要意义。尽管Transformer擅长处理长序列,但其在保留时序关系方面存在争议。近期研究表明,简单线性模型可能在时序预测中表现不逊于甚至超越复杂模型。本文提出一种新型数据高效的多变量时序预测架构——高斯激活线性模型(GLinear),通过挖掘周期模式提升预测精度。在ETTh1、Electricity、Traffic和Weather四个数据集上的实验表明,该模型在仅需较少历史数据的情况下,相比现有先进线性模型(如NLinear、DLinear、RLinear)和基于Transformer的模型(Autoformer),多数情况下表现更优,部分场景下仍具竞争力。我们希望GLinear能推动更简单且更精密的高效时序分析架构研究。代码已开源。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is an important application across many fields. There is a debate about whether Transformers, despite being good at understanding long sequences, struggle with preserving temporal relationships in time series data. Recent research suggests that simpler linear models might outperform or at least provide competitive performance compared to complex Transformer-based models for TSF tasks. In this paper, we propose a novel data-efficient architecture, \textit{Gaussian-activated Linear model (GLinear)}, for multivariate TSF that exploits periodic patterns to provide better accuracy. It achieves higher prediction accuracy while requiring less historical data than other state-of-the-art linear predictors. Four different datasets (ETTh1, Electricity, Traffic, and Weather) are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed predictor. A performance comparison with state-of-the-art linear architectures (such as NLinear, DLinear, and RLinear) and transformer-based time series predictors (Autoformer) shows that the GLinear, despite being data efficient, outperforms the existing architectures in most cases of multivariate TSF while being competitive in others. We hope that the proposed GLinear model opens new fronts of research and development of simpler and more sophisticated architectures for data and computationally efficient time-series analysis. The source code is publicly available on GitHub.
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