arXiv:2501.01447econ.GNcs.LG2025-01

分析各国疫苗接种能力,揭示基础设施与全球合作的关键作用

Analyzing Country-Level Vaccination Rates and Determinants of Practical Capacity to Administer COVID-19 Vaccines

  • 用排队模型量化各国疫苗接种的实际服务能力
  • 低收入国基建投入多则接种率更高,高收入国老年人接种难
  • 跨国协作如COVAX和交通设施改善能显著提升接种效率

COVID-19疫苗的研发、生产、运输和接种构成全球规模的极端物流挑战。本文通过排队框架分析各国疫苗接种率,提取代表实际接种能力的服务率,并利用回归与可解释机器学习方法,结合国家层面的人口、政府及社会经济变量进行特征分析。结果表明,参与COVAX等多国合作项目有助于提升接种能力;低收入国家每单位面积道路数增加,高收入国家每单位面积铁路线增加,均能提高接种率。对低收入国家而言,医疗支出、每10万人口医生与病床数、电力覆盖率、预期寿命及每千人机动车数等基础与卫生基础设施改善,显著提升接种率。高收入国家中65岁以上人口比例较大的国家接种率较低,显示老年人群存在可及性障碍。研究指出,强化基础与医疗基础设施、关注‘最后一公里’可及性(尤其老年人)、推动全球合作,是提升大规模疫苗接种效率的关键。未来应对全球公共卫生危机需解决此类结构性制约与不平等问题。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The COVID-19 vaccine development, manufacturing, transportation, and administration proved an extreme logistics operation of global magnitude. Global vaccination levels, however, remain a key concern in preventing the emergence of new strains and minimizing the impact of the pandemic's disruption of daily life. In this paper, country-level vaccination rates are analyzed through a queuing framework to extract service rates that represent the practical capacity of a country to administer vaccines. These rates are further characterized through regression and interpretable machine learning methods with country-level demographic, governmental, and socio-economic variates. Model results show that participation in multi-governmental collaborations such as COVAX may improve the ability to vaccinate. Similarly, improved transportation and accessibility variates such as roads per area for low-income countries and rail lines per area for high-income countries can improve rates. It was also found that for low-income countries specifically, improvements in basic and health infrastructure (as measured through spending on healthcare, number of doctors and hospital beds per 100k, population percent with access to electricity, life expectancy, and vehicles per 1000 people) resulted in higher vaccination rates. Of the high-income countries, those with larger 65-plus populations struggled to vaccinate at high rates, indicating potential accessibility issues for the elderly. This study finds that improving basic and health infrastructure, focusing on accessibility in the last mile, particularly for the elderly, and fostering global partnerships can improve logistical operations of such a scale. Such structural impediments and inequities in global health care must be addressed in preparation for future global public health crises.

疫苗接种公共健康基础设施全球合作

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