用AI预测粒子加速器断电,减少人工排查时间。
AI-Enabled Operations at Fermi Complex: Multivariate Time Series Prediction for Outage Prediction and Diagnosis
- 用深度学习模型分析2703个设备的时序数据预测断电。
- 随机森林自动标注故障原因,准确率高于传统阈值报警。
- 适合加速器运维与工业故障预测领域研究者参考。
费米实验室加速器主控室持续采集数千个传感器的时序数据以监控束流状态。但意外事件如跳闸或电压波动常导致束流中断,造成运行停机。此类停机不仅耗费操作员诊断精力,还使闲置设备无谓耗能。现有基于阈值的报警系统为被动响应,存在误报频发和故障原因标注不一致等问题。为此,我们提出一种AI增强框架,融合预测分析与自动化标注。利用来自2,703台Linac设备及80次人工标注断电事件的数据,评估了包括循环、注意力机制和线性模型在内的主流深度学习架构在束流断电预测中的表现。同时,测试基于随机森林的标注系统,实现一致性且带置信度评分的故障归因。研究揭示各类模型在断电预测中的优劣,并指出当前关键差距——需进一步提升模型可靠性以实现从被动响应到主动预测的转变,最终降低停机时间,优化加速器管理决策。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The Main Control Room of the Fermilab accelerator complex continuously gathers extensive time-series data from thousands of sensors monitoring the beam. However, unplanned events such as trips or voltage fluctuations often result in beam outages, causing operational downtime. This downtime not only consumes operator effort in diagnosing and addressing the issue but also leads to unnecessary energy consumption by idle machines awaiting beam restoration. The current threshold-based alarm system is reactive and faces challenges including frequent false alarms and inconsistent outage-cause labeling. To address these limitations, we propose an AI-enabled framework that leverages predictive analytics and automated labeling. Using data from $2,703$ Linac devices and $80$ operator-labeled outages, we evaluate state-of-the-art deep learning architectures, including recurrent, attention-based, and linear models, for beam outage prediction. Additionally, we assess a Random Forest-based labeling system for providing consistent, confidence-scored outage annotations. Our findings highlight the strengths and weaknesses of these architectures for beam outage prediction and identify critical gaps that must be addressed to fully harness AI for transitioning downtime handling from reactive to predictive, ultimately reducing downtime and improving decision-making in accelerator management.
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