arXiv:2501.01915cs.LG2025-01

用元学习建模群体互动,让模型自适应预测新群体行为。

Social Processes: Probabilistic Meta-learning for Adaptive Multiparty Interaction Forecasting

  • 将每个群体视为独立元任务,基于历史互动预测集体行为分布。
  • 在合成数据上实现对未见群体的泛化,提升跨群体预测能力。
  • 适合研究社交行为建模、多智能体系统与动态群体分析的学者。

在社交场景中自适应地预测人类行为是迈向通用人工智能的重要一步。现有研究多聚焦于无焦点互动(如行人轨迹预测)或单人、两人行为预测,而社会心理学强调群体互动对理解复杂社交动态的重要性。本文填补这一空白:实现群体(对话)层面的社会互动预测。此外,模型需能适应训练时未见的群体,因同一人面对不同群体时行为可能迥异。为此,本文采用元学习方法,将每个群体视为独立任务,使模型根据特定群体的历史行为进行条件预测,从而实现对未见群体的泛化。我们提出社交过程(Social Process, SP)模型,基于成员先前的低层多模态线索,联合预测全体成员未来多模态线索的分布,并融入该群体过往互动序列。本研究还通过真实合成数据集分析了SP模型在输出和潜在空间中的泛化能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Adaptively forecasting human behavior in social settings is an important step toward achieving Artificial General Intelligence. Most existing research in social forecasting has focused either on unfocused interactions, such as pedestrian trajectory prediction, or on monadic and dyadic behavior forecasting. In contrast, social psychology emphasizes the importance of group interactions for understanding complex social dynamics. This creates a gap that we address in this paper: forecasting social interactions at the group (conversation) level. Additionally, it is important for a forecasting model to be able to adapt to groups unseen at train time, as even the same individual behaves differently across different groups. This highlights the need for a forecasting model to explicitly account for each group's unique dynamics. To achieve this, we adopt a meta-learning approach to human behavior forecasting, treating every group as a separate meta-learning task. As a result, our method conditions its predictions on the specific behaviors within the group, leading to generalization to unseen groups. Specifically, we introduce Social Process (SP) models, which predict a distribution over future multimodal cues jointly for all group members based on their preceding low-level multimodal cues, while incorporating other past sequences of the same group's interactions. In this work we also analyze the generalization capabilities of SP models in both their outputs and latent spaces through the use of realistic synthetic datasets.

社交预测元学习群体行为多智能体

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