arXiv:2501.02241cs.LGcs.AI2025-01

通过空间关系学习气象因子,提升电力负荷预测精度。

Interpretable Load Forecasting via Representation Learning of Geo-distributed Meteorological Factors

  • 基于图结构学习多地点气象因子的时空表示
  • 在极端天气下预测误差降低,夏冬两季效果显著
  • 揭示气象重要性与地区经济产业的关联

气象因素(MF)对日前负荷预测至关重要,因其显著影响用户用电行为。现有方法通常选取单一地点或平均气象数据作为输入,但区域内不同位置的气象差异较大,导致特征选择困难。本文提出一种表征学习框架,用于提取具有空间关系的地理分布气象因子,并利用基于图模型的Shapley值分析不同位置气象因子与负荷之间的关联。为降低计算复杂度,采用蒙特卡洛采样与加权线性回归加速Shapley值计算。在两个真实数据集上的实验表明,该方法在极端场景(如夏季‘累积温度效应’、冬季‘突发降温’)下显著提升了日前预测精度。此外,发现气象因子重要性与地区GDP及主导产业存在显著相关性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Meteorological factors (MF) are crucial in day-ahead load forecasting as they significantly influence the electricity consumption behaviors of consumers. Numerous studies have incorporated MF into the load forecasting model to achieve higher accuracy. Selecting MF from one representative location or the averaged MF as the inputs of the forecasting model is a common practice. However, the difference in MF collected in various locations within a region may be significant, which poses a challenge in selecting the appropriate MF from numerous locations. A representation learning framework is proposed to extract geo-distributed MF while considering their spatial relationships. In addition, this paper employs the Shapley value in the graph-based model to reveal connections between MF collected in different locations and loads. To reduce the computational complexity of calculating the Shapley value, an acceleration method is adopted based on Monte Carlo sampling and weighted linear regression. Experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed method improves the day-ahead forecasting accuracy, especially in extreme scenarios such as the "accumulation temperature effect" in summer and "sudden temperature change" in winter. We also find a significant correlation between the importance of MF in different locations and the corresponding area's GDP and mainstay industry.

负荷预测气象因子图神经网络可解释性

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