用混合残差网络预测二维时空混沌模式,提升精度与可解释性。
Predicting two-dimensional spatiotemporal chaotic patterns with optimized high-dimensional hybrid reservoir computing
- 结合物理模型与数据驱动,采用局部状态近似降低高维计算复杂度。
- 输出混合方案在小误差、小规模下表现最优,比纯数据驱动提升显著。
- 适合需要高效与可解释性的生物电波等复杂系统预测任务。
针对物理模型失效的复杂动力系统预测问题,残差计算(RC)成为替代方案。混合型残差计算通过融合知识驱动模型(KBM)提升性能,包括全混合(FH)、输入混合(IH)和输出混合(OH)三种形式。本文将该方法扩展至二维时空混沌模式预测,为应对高维挑战,采用局部状态假设,仅利用局部邻近时间序列进行预测。基于描述心肌组织中混沌电波传播的Barkley模型仿真数据,评估了三种混合策略。结果表明,三者均优于纯残差计算;当模型误差较小时,小规模残差下FH与OH性能相近且优于IH;由于OH计算开销更小且可解释性强,推荐使用。但在大规模残差下,OH性能下降,低于FH与IH。因此建议针对具体应用测试三种配置,在预测精度与计算成本间权衡选择最优方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
As an alternative approach for predicting complex dynamical systems where physics-based models are no longer reliable, reservoir computing (RC) has gained popularity. The hybrid approach is considered an interesting option for improving the prediction performance of RC. The idea is to combine a knowledge-based model (KBM) to support the fully data-driven RC prediction. There are three types of hybridization for RC, namely full hybrid (FH), input hybrid (IH) and output hybrid (OH), where it was shown that the latter one is superior in terms of the accuracy and the robustness for the prediction of low-dimensional chaotic systems. Here, we extend the formalism to the prediction of spatiotemporal patterns in two dimensions. To overcome the curse of dimensionality for this very high-dimensional case we employ the local states ansatz, where only a few locally adjacent time series are utilized for the RC-based prediction. Using simulation data from the Barkley model describing chaotic electrical wave propagation in cardiac tissue, we outline the formalism of high-dimensional hybrid RC and assess the performance of the different hybridization schemes. We find that all three methods (FH, IH and OH) perform better than reservoir only, where improvements are small when the model is very inaccurate. For small model errors and small reservoirs FH and OH perform nearly equally well and better than IH. Given the smaller CPU needs for OH and especially the better interpretability of it, OH is to be favored. For large reservoirs the performance of OH drops below that of FH and IH. Generally, it maybe advisable to test the three setups for a given application and select the best suited one that optimizes between the counteracting factors of prediction performance and CPU needs.
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