arXiv:2501.02905cs.LGcs.AI2025-01被引 3

用深度学习提升高分辨率降水预报精度,更好预测极端降雨。

Skillful High-Resolution Ensemble Precipitation Forecasting with an Integrated Deep Learning Framework

  • 融合3D SwinTransformer与潜空间扩散模型,兼顾大尺度与对流尺度预报。
  • 0.05度分辨率下,对重雨事件的预报精度显著优于ERA5,CSI评分良好。
  • 生成多组随机样本模拟不确定性,适合气象预警与灾害应对场景。

高分辨率降水预报对精准天气预测和应对极端天气至关重要。传统数值模式难以处理亚网格尺度的随机过程,而现有深度学习模型常产生模糊结果。为此,我们提出一种融合物理启发的深度学习框架,用于0.05°×0.05°高分辨率集合降水预报。模型基于ERA5和CMPA高分辨率降水数据集训练,整合确定性与概率性组件:确定性部分采用3D SwinTransformer,捕捉中尺度平均降水,特别优化了中到强降雨的表现;概率部分在潜空间使用条件扩散模型,以表征对流尺度残差降水的不确定性。推理时通过重复采样潜变量生成集合成员,实现降水不确定性的有效表达。模型显著提升空间分辨率与预报准确率,秩直方图显示集合系统可靠且无偏。针对中国南方强降水的案例研究显示,模型输出更贴近实测降水分布,优于ERA5。此外,5天实时预报在CSI评分上表现良好。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

High-resolution precipitation forecasts are crucial for providing accurate weather prediction and supporting effective responses to extreme weather events. Traditional numerical models struggle with stochastic subgrid-scale processes, while recent deep learning models often produce blurry results. To address these challenges, we propose a physics-inspired deep learning framework for high-resolution (0.05\textdegree{} $\times$ 0.05\textdegree{}) ensemble precipitation forecasting. Trained on ERA5 and CMPA high-resolution precipitation datasets, the framework integrates deterministic and probabilistic components. The deterministic model, based on a 3D SwinTransformer, captures average precipitation at mesoscale resolution and incorporates strategies to enhance performance, particularly for moderate to heavy rainfall. The probabilistic model employs conditional diffusion in latent space to account for uncertainties in residual precipitation at convective scales. During inference, ensemble members are generated by repeatedly sampling latent variables, enabling the model to represent precipitation uncertainty. Our model significantly enhances spatial resolution and forecast accuracy. Rank histogram shows that the ensemble system is reliable and unbiased. In a case study of heavy precipitation in southern China, the model outputs align more closely with observed precipitation distributions than ERA5, demonstrating superior capability in capturing extreme precipitation events. Additionally, 5-day real-time forecasts show good performance in terms of CSI scores.

降水预报深度学习集合预报气象应用

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