提出分组沙普利值,可更公平评估金融特征组重要性。
Group Shapley with Robust Significance Testing and Its Application to Bond Recovery Rate Prediction
- 将沙普利值扩展至特征组,适配经济数据结构
- 小样本下仍稳定,显著优于传统检验方法
- 适合金融风控、可解释AI研究者使用
我们提出分组沙普利值(Group Shapley),将经典的个体级沙普利值框架拓展至特征组层面,以应对商业与经济数据中常见的结构化预测因子。更重要的是,我们基于三阶累积量卡方近似构建了显著性检验程序,并确立了分组沙普利值统计量的渐近性质。该方法能有效处理稀疏或偏态分布及小样本等挑战,优于如Wald检验等替代方案。模拟结果显示,所提检验保持稳健的实证尺寸,并在多种条件下提升检验功效。为验证其实际价值,我们利用全球数据集(1996–2023年,共2,094个观测值,98个特征,分为16个子组和5个大类:债券特性、公司基本面、行业因素、市场变量与宏观经济指标)进行债券回收率预测,结果表明市场相关变量组影响最大。此外,洛伦兹曲线与基尼指数显示,分组沙普利值相比个体沙普利值分配重要性更均衡。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We propose Group Shapley, a metric that extends the classical individual-level Shapley value framework to evaluate the importance of feature groups, addressing the structured nature of predictors commonly found in business and economic data. More importantly, we develop a significance testing procedure based on a three-cumulant chi-square approximation and establish the asymptotic properties of the test statistics for Group Shapley values. Our approach can effectively handle challenging scenarios, including sparse or skewed distributions and small sample sizes, outperforming alternative tests such as the Wald test. Simulations confirm that the proposed test maintains robust empirical size and demonstrates enhanced power under diverse conditions. To illustrate the method's practical relevance in advancing Explainable AI, we apply our framework to bond recovery rate predictions using a global dataset (1996-2023) comprising 2,094 observations and 98 features, grouped into 16 subgroups and five broader categories: bond characteristics, firm fundamentals, industry-specific factors, market-related variables, and macroeconomic indicators. Our results identify the market-related variables group as the most influential. Furthermore, Lorenz curves and Gini indices reveal that Group Shapley assigns feature importance more equitably compared to individual Shapley values.
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