arXiv:2501.03058cs.LGcs.AI2025-01被引 2

揭示生存分析中多种模型的内在联系,助力跌倒风险预测

Survival Analysis Revisited: Understanding and Unifying Poisson, Exponential, and Cox Models in Fall Risk Analysis

  • 从泊松、指数到Cox模型,系统推导其数学关联
  • 证明泊松回归是Cox模型在特定条件下的特例
  • 适合需要可解释性与稳健性的医疗数据分析者

本文以跌倒风险评估为案例,重新探讨生存分析的基础与应用。通过逐步推导和澄清逻辑回归、泊松回归、指数回归及Cox比例风险模型之间的关系,揭示了在生存分析框架下各模型的统一性。特别地,证明了生存分析中的泊松回归是Cox模型的一个特例。这些洞察弥补了理解上的空白,强化了生存模型的简洁性与可解释性。研究强调生存分析在真实场景中的实用性,展示其可在单一框架内同时实现跌倒风险预测、影响因素分析与事件发生时间估计。相较之下,深度学习方法常需复杂后处理且需分别训练不同任务,尤其在结构化数值数据上表现不足。这凸显经典统计框架在医疗领域中的持久价值,其中可解释性与鲁棒性至关重要。本工作通过整合基础概念,为理解与应用时间-事件分析提供了清晰视角。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This paper explores foundational and applied aspects of survival analysis, using fall risk assessment as a case study. It revisits key time-related probability distributions and statistical methods, including logistic regression, Poisson regression, Exponential regression, and the Cox Proportional Hazards model, offering a unified perspective on their relationships within the survival analysis framework. A contribution of this work is the step-by-step derivation and clarification of the relationships among these models, particularly demonstrating that Poisson regression in the survival context is a specific case of the Cox model. These insights address gaps in understanding and reinforce the simplicity and interpretability of survival models. The paper also emphasizes the practical utility of survival analysis by connecting theoretical insights with real-world applications. In the context of fall detection, it demonstrates how these models can simultaneously predict fall risk, analyze contributing factors, and estimate time-to-event outcomes within a single streamlined framework. In contrast, advanced deep learning methods often require complex post-hoc interpretation and separate training for different tasks particularly when working with structured numerical data. This highlights the enduring relevance of classical statistical frameworks and makes survival models especially valuable in healthcare settings, where explainability and robustness are critical. By unifying foundational concepts and offering a cohesive perspective on time-to-event analysis, this work serves as an accessible resource for understanding survival models and applying them effectively to diverse analytical challenges.

生存分析跌倒预测可解释性统计建模

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