arXiv:2501.03282cs.AIcs.LG2025-01被引 49

系统梳理AI不确定性量化方法,区分随机与认知不确定性。

From Aleatoric to Epistemic: Exploring Uncertainty Quantification Techniques in Artificial Intelligence

  • 区分随机不确定性和认知不确定性,构建量化框架
  • 整合概率方法、集成学习等技术提升预测可靠性
  • 适合关注AI安全与可信决策的研究者参考

不确定性量化(UQ)是人工智能系统中的关键环节,尤其在医疗、自动驾驶和金融科技等高风险领域,决策需考虑不确定性。本文综述了AI中不确定性的演进,区分随机不确定性(aleatoric)与认知不确定性(epistemic),并探讨其数学基础与量化方法。介绍了概率方法、集成学习、采样技术及生成模型等先进手段,同时强调融合领域知识的混合方法。还分析了UQ在各领域的应用,凸显其对决策质量、预测精度与系统鲁棒性的影响。讨论了可扩展性、效率与可解释AI融合等挑战,并展望未来研究方向。本综述旨在深化对UQ在提升AI可靠性、安全性与可信度方面作用的理解。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical aspect of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly in high-risk domains such as healthcare, autonomous systems, and financial technology, where decision-making processes must account for uncertainty. This review explores the evolution of uncertainty quantification techniques in AI, distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, and discusses the mathematical foundations and methods used to quantify these uncertainties. We provide an overview of advanced techniques, including probabilistic methods, ensemble learning, sampling-based approaches, and generative models, while also highlighting hybrid approaches that integrate domain-specific knowledge. Furthermore, we examine the diverse applications of UQ across various fields, emphasizing its impact on decision-making, predictive accuracy, and system robustness. The review also addresses key challenges such as scalability, efficiency, and integration with explainable AI, and outlines future directions for research in this rapidly developing area. Through this comprehensive survey, we aim to provide a deeper understanding of UQ's role in enhancing the reliability, safety, and trustworthiness of AI systems.

不确定性量化AI安全可解释AI

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