提出可解释时序模型,精准捕捉变量间动态关联。
Interpretable deep convolutional model for nonlinear multivariate time series in complex systems
- 用稀疏掩码选择关键变量与时间延迟,分步建模交互关系。
- 在基准数据上预测误差接近最优基线,且稳定恢复符号化时滞模式。
- 适合需理解复杂系统内部机制的研究者使用。
我们提出深度卷积时序解释器(DCIts),一种用于非线性多变量时序的深度学习架构,能为每个样本提供局部可解释的潜在交互结构描述。与传统黑箱预测器不同,DCIts 显式分解出时变、滞后依赖的转移张量,由两个组件构成:聚焦器(Focuser)通过稀疏掩码选择相关源变量和时滞,建模器(Modeler)为这些选中的交互分配带符号系数。该分解生成每条预测实例的局部时滞邻接结构及带符号的源-时滞贡献,支持有效连接性的直接检验;当高阶分支被激活时,框架可输出逐元素的阶次解析多项式贡献。架构上,DCIts 使用多样化的卷积滤波器捕捉时间与跨变量依赖,并通过瓶颈网络映射至转移张量。在具有已知交互结构的受控基准数据集上,实验表明其预测误差与强可解释基线相当,同时能稳定恢复符号化、时滞分辨的交互模式。因此,该框架将内在可解释性置于首位,以预测精度作为忠实性约束而非唯一目标。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We introduce the Deep Convolutional Interpreter for Time Series (DCIts), a deep-learning architecture for nonlinear multivariate time series that provides sample-specific, locally interpretable descriptions of the underlying interaction structure. Unlike standard black-box forecasters, DCIts learns a time- and lag-dependent transition tensor explicitly factorized into two components: a Focuser, which selects relevant source series and time lags via a sparse masking mechanism, and a Modeler, which assigns signed coefficients to these selected interactions. This decomposition yields a local lag-adjacency structure and signed source-lag contributions for every forecast instance, enabling direct inspection of effective connectivity; when higher-order branches are activated, the same framework yields order-resolved elementwise polynomial contributions. Architecturally, DCIts uses a diverse bank of convolutional filters to capture temporal and cross-variable dependencies, which are mapped through a bottleneck network to the transition tensor. On controlled benchmark datasets with a known interaction structure, we demonstrate that DCIts achieves competitive forecasting error relative to a strong interpretable baseline while recovering stable, signed, lag-resolved interaction patterns. The framework thus prioritizes intrinsic interpretability, using forecasting accuracy as a faithfulness constraint rather than the sole objective.
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