arXiv:2501.06404econ.EMcs.AI2025-01被引 1

用生成模型与强化学习动态优化再保险,提升抗风险能力。

A Hybrid Framework for Reinsurance Optimization: Integrating Generative Models and Reinforcement Learning

  • 用变分自编码器学习多险种多年索赔数据的联合分布
  • 强化学习动态调整再保条款,使盈余更高、尾部风险更低
  • 适合关注再保险智能化、风险建模与资本管理的研究者

再保险优化是偿付能力和资本管理的核心,但传统方法常依赖严苛的分布假设和静态设计。本文提出一种混合框架,利用变分自编码器(VAEs)学习多险种、多年度索赔数据的联合分布,并结合近端策略优化(PPO)强化学习,动态调整再保合约参数。该框架明确以在资本约束和破产概率限制下的预期盈余为目标,实现统计建模与序贯决策的融合。通过模拟及压力测试场景(包括疫情型和巨灾型冲击),结果表明,该方法相比经典比例再保和止损再保基准,能产生更稳健的收益,带来更高的盈余和更低的尾部风险。研究凸显了生成模型在捕捉跨险种依赖关系中的优势,并验证了强化学习在实际再保险场景中动态结构化的可行性。贡献包括:(i) 明确再保险强化学习的优化目标,(ii) 支持生成建模优于参数拟合,(iii) 提供与成熟方法的基准对比。本工作展示了混合人工智能技术应对组合多样化、巨灾风险与动态资本配置挑战的潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Reinsurance optimization is a cornerstone of solvency and capital management, yet traditional approaches often rely on restrictive distributional assumptions and static program designs. We propose a hybrid framework that combines Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) to learn joint distributions of multi-line and multi-year claims data with Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) reinforcement learning to adapt treaty parameters dynamically. The framework explicitly targets expected surplus under capital and ruin-probability constraints, bridging statistical modeling with sequential decision-making. Using simulated and stress-test scenarios, including pandemic-type and catastrophe-type shocks, we show that the hybrid method produces more resilient outcomes than classical proportional and stop-loss benchmarks, delivering higher surpluses and lower tail risk. Our findings highlight the usefulness of generative models for capturing cross-line dependencies and demonstrate the feasibility of RL-based dynamic structuring in practical reinsurance settings. Contributions include (i) clarifying optimization goals in reinsurance RL, (ii) defending generative modeling relative to parametric fits, and (iii) benchmarking against established methods. This work illustrates how hybrid AI techniques can address modern challenges of portfolio diversification, catastrophe risk, and adaptive capital allocation.

再保险优化生成模型强化学习风险管理

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