用深度学习分析住院患者跌倒风险,提升预测准确性。
Deep Learning on Hester Davis Scores for Inpatient Fall Prediction
- 用历史跌倒评分序列建模,捕捉风险动态变化
- 深度学习模型比传统阈值法准确率更高
- 适合临床医生用于实时跌倒风险预警
住院患者跌倒风险预测是临床安全的关键环节,准确的模型有助于预防不良事件。目前临床普遍采用赫斯特·戴维斯评分(Hester Davis Score, HDS)进行风险评估,通过设定阈值判断高危患者。但该方法难以捕捉风险随时间变化的动态特征。本文在传统阈值法基础上,提出两种机器学习方法:一步前预测(one-step ahead)和序列到点预测(sequence-to-point)。前者利用当前时刻HDS预测下一时刻风险,后者则整合所有先前HDS值,借助深度学习进行风险预测。实验表明,深度学习模型能有效捕捉时间模式,显著优于传统阈值法,提升预测可靠性。研究结果表明,数据驱动方法有望通过更精准的跌倒预警,增强患者安全。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Fall risk prediction among hospitalized patients is a critical aspect of patient safety in clinical settings, and accurate models can help prevent adverse events. The Hester Davis Score (HDS) is commonly used to assess fall risk, with current clinical practice relying on a threshold-based approach. In this method, a patient is classified as high-risk when their HDS exceeds a predefined threshold. However, this approach may fail to capture dynamic patterns in fall risk over time. In this study, we model the threshold-based approach and propose two machine learning approaches for enhanced fall prediction: One-step ahead fall prediction and sequence-to-point fall prediction. The one-step ahead model uses the HDS at the current timestamp to predict the risk at the next timestamp, while the sequence-to-point model leverages all preceding HDS values to predict fall risk using deep learning. We compare these approaches to assess their accuracy in fall risk prediction, demonstrating that deep learning can outperform the traditional threshold-based method by capturing temporal patterns and improving prediction reliability. These findings highlight the potential for data-driven approaches to enhance patient safety through more reliable fall prevention strategies.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。