arXiv:2501.06561cs.AI2025-01被引 2

提出多尺度时空解耦模型,预测未来1天或1周的人类移动轨迹。

Where to Go Next Day: Multi-scale Spatial-Temporal Decoupled Model for Mid-term Human Mobility Prediction

  • 将轨迹分解为位置-时长链,分步建模时空特征。
  • 在5个城市数据上预测准确率提升62.8%(累计病例误差)。
  • 适合交通规划与疫情传播模拟等中长期应用。

预测个体移动模式对诸多应用至关重要。现有方法多聚焦于下一位置预测,难以支持交通管理与疫情防控等需长期预测的场景。本文研究中长期移动预测,旨在捕捉日常出行规律并预测未来一天或一周的轨迹。提出一种新型多尺度时空解耦预测器(MSTDP),通过将每日轨迹解耦为独立的位置-时长链,高效提取时空信息。采用分层编码器建模多尺度时间模式,包括日周期性与周周期性,并利用基于Transformer的解码器全局关注位置或时长链的预测信息。此外,引入空间异质图学习器捕捉多尺度空间关系,增强语义表示。在波士顿、洛杉矶、旧金山湾区、上海和东京五地大规模手机记录上进行实验,结合统计物理分析验证性能。应用于波士顿疫情建模,相比最优基线,累计新增病例预测的平均绝对误差(MAE)降低62.8%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predicting individual mobility patterns is crucial across various applications. While current methods mainly focus on predicting the next location for personalized services like recommendations, they often fall short in supporting broader applications such as traffic management and epidemic control, which require longer period forecasts of human mobility. This study addresses mid-term mobility prediction, aiming to capture daily travel patterns and forecast trajectories for the upcoming day or week. We propose a novel Multi-scale Spatial-Temporal Decoupled Predictor (MSTDP) designed to efficiently extract spatial and temporal information by decoupling daily trajectories into distinct location-duration chains. Our approach employs a hierarchical encoder to model multi-scale temporal patterns, including daily recurrence and weekly periodicity, and utilizes a transformer-based decoder to globally attend to predicted information in the location or duration chain. Additionally, we introduce a spatial heterogeneous graph learner to capture multi-scale spatial relationships, enhancing semantic-rich representations. Extensive experiments, including statistical physics analysis, are conducted on large-scale mobile phone records in five cities (Boston, Los Angeles, SF Bay Area, Shanghai, and Tokyo), to demonstrate MSTDP's advantages. Applied to epidemic modeling in Boston, MSTDP significantly outperforms the best-performing baseline, achieving a remarkable 62.8% reduction in MAE for cumulative new cases.

移动预测时空模型疫情模拟

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