测试深度学习模型在新化学领域的泛化能力,发现现有模型在真实场景下表现不佳。
Challenging reaction prediction models to generalize to novel chemistry
- 用新专利和新作者数据测试模型泛化性能
- 时间分割测试显示模型对后续年份反应预测准确率下降
- 挑战跨反应类型外推,揭示模型发现新反应的局限性
用于预测有机反应产物的深度学习模型已在多个领域应用,如验证逆合成路径和约束基于合成的分子设计工具。尽管在主流基准任务上表现优异,但实际使用中常出现异常甚至错误预测。根本原因在于常见基准测试处于分布内(in-distribution)情境,而真实应用场景多为分布外(out-of-distribution),需要更强的外推能力。为更深入理解当前反应预测模型在分布外场景的表现,我们对一个典型的基于SMILES的深度学习模型进行了系列更具挑战性的评估:首先,对比随机采样数据集上的表现与在新专利或新作者数据上的表现,发现前者过于乐观;其次,采用时间划分策略,测试模型在训练集之后年份发表的反应上的表现,模拟真实部署场景;最后,考察跨反应类型外推能力,反映发现新型反应所需的能力。这一系列任务揭示了当前反应预测模型的能力边界,是发展下一代具备反应发现能力模型的关键第一步。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Deep learning models for anticipating the products of organic reactions have found many use cases, including validating retrosynthetic pathways and constraining synthesis-based molecular design tools. Despite compelling performance on popular benchmark tasks, strange and erroneous predictions sometimes ensue when using these models in practice. The core issue is that common benchmarks test models in an in-distribution setting, whereas many real-world uses for these models are in out-of-distribution settings and require a greater degree of extrapolation. To better understand how current reaction predictors work in out-of-distribution domains, we report a series of more challenging evaluations of a prototypical SMILES-based deep learning model. First, we illustrate how performance on randomly sampled datasets is overly optimistic compared to performance when generalizing to new patents or new authors. Second, we conduct time splits that evaluate how models perform when tested on reactions published in years after those in their training set, mimicking real-world deployment. Finally, we consider extrapolation across reaction classes to reflect what would be required for the discovery of novel reaction types. This panel of tasks can reveal the capabilities and limitations of today's reaction predictors, acting as a crucial first step in the development of tomorrow's next-generation models capable of reaction discovery.
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