arXiv:2501.07317cs.LGcs.AI2025-01

用AI预测汽车生产非循环区的未知周期,准确率最高达90%。

Evaluation of Artificial Intelligence Methods for Lead Time Prediction in Non-Cycled Areas of Automotive Production

  • 采用集成学习与支持向量机,优选LightGBM算法进行预测。
  • 在特征可用且粒度合适时,相对准确率最高达90%。
  • 适合需要动态优化生产调度的企业和工业数据团队。

本研究评估了人工智能方法在汽车生产环境中对非循环控制生产区域未知周期的预测效果。通过分析数据结构识别上下文特征,并使用独热编码进行预处理。方法选择聚焦于监督学习技术,比较回归与分类方法。基于目标尺寸分布的连续回归不可行;分类方法分析表明,集成学习与支持向量机最为适用。初步结果显示,梯度提升算法LightGBM、XGBoost和CatBoost表现最佳。经进一步测试与大规模超参数优化后,最终选定LightGBM算法。根据特征可用性和预测区间粒度,相对预测准确率可达90%。后续测试强调了定期重训练模型的重要性,以准确反映复杂生产过程。研究表明,人工智能方法可有效应用于高度波动的生产数据,为多种控制任务提供额外指标,优于现有非AI系统。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The present study examines the effectiveness of applying Artificial Intelligence methods in an automotive production environment to predict unknown lead times in a non-cycle-controlled production area. Data structures are analyzed to identify contextual features and then preprocessed using one-hot encoding. Methods selection focuses on supervised machine learning techniques. In supervised learning methods, regression and classification methods are evaluated. Continuous regression based on target size distribution is not feasible. Classification methods analysis shows that Ensemble Learning and Support Vector Machines are the most suitable. Preliminary study results indicate that gradient boosting algorithms LightGBM, XGBoost, and CatBoost yield the best results. After further testing and extensive hyperparameter optimization, the final method choice is the LightGBM algorithm. Depending on feature availability and prediction interval granularity, relative prediction accuracies of up to 90% can be achieved. Further tests highlight the importance of periodic retraining of AI models to accurately represent complex production processes using the database. The research demonstrates that AI methods can be effectively applied to highly variable production data, adding business value by providing an additional metric for various control tasks while outperforming current non AI-based systems.

AI预测生产调度轻量模型工业数据

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