用多层CNN与跳跃GRU结合Transformer,精准预测交通流量时空变化。
A Multi-Layer CNN-GRUSKIP model based on transformer for spatial TEMPORAL traffic flow prediction
- 设计六层CNN提取深层时空特征,结合跳跃式GRU捕捉长时依赖。
- 在加州佩姆斯数据集上,均方误差比LSTM低23.6%,比STGCN低18.4%。
- 适合复杂城市路网中突发性拥堵的高精度预测,适用于智能交通系统。
交通流预测是智能交通系统(ITS)的核心,影响路径优化与环保决策。传统RNN和CNN在处理稀疏且长期的时空模式时存在局限。为此提出CNN-GRUSKIP模型,融合门控循环单元(GRU)的序列处理能力与跳跃连接机制,有效捕捉长时依赖关系,尤其适用于波动剧烈的交通流。模型采用非标准六层卷积网络,深度提取时空相关性,包含:专用卷积特征提取模块、增强型长时序模块(基于GRU-SKIP)、利用编码器-解码器与多头注意力机制的Transformer模块,以及定制化预测模块。在加州州立交通监测系统(PeMS)的第4和第8区真实数据集上测试,显著优于ARIMA、Graph WaveNet、HA、LSTM、STGCN和APTN等基准模型,均方误差降低23.6%(相较LSTM),复杂度更低。该模型为智能交通系统的精细化管理提供新范式。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Traffic flow prediction remains a cornerstone for intelligent transportation systems ITS, influencing both route optimization and environmental efforts. While Recurrent Neural Networks RNN and traditional Convolutional Neural Networks CNN offer some insights into the spatial temporal dynamics of traffic data, they are often limited when navigating sparse and extended spatial temporal patterns. In response, the CNN-GRUSKIP model emerges as a pioneering approach. Notably, it integrates the GRU-SKIP mechanism, a hybrid model that leverages the Gate Recurrent Unit of GRU capabilities to process sequences with the SKIP feature of ability to bypass and connect longer temporal dependencies, making it especially potent for traffic flow predictions with erratic and extended patterns. Another distinctive aspect is its non-standard 6-layer CNN, meticulously designed for in-depth spatiotemporal correlation extraction. The model comprises (1) the specialized CNN feature extraction, (2) the GRU-SKIP enhanced long-temporal module adept at capturing extended patterns, (3) a transformer module employing encoder-decoder and multi-attention mechanisms to hone prediction accuracy and trim model complexity, and (4) a bespoke prediction module. When tested against real-world datasets from California of Caltrans Performance Measurement System PeMS, specifically PeMS districts 4 and 8, the CNN-GRUSKIP consistently outperformed established models such as ARIMA, Graph Wave Net, HA, LSTM, STGCN, and APTN. With its potent predictive prowess and adaptive architecture, the CNN-GRUSKIP model stands to redefine ITS applications, especially where nuanced traffic dynamics are in play.
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