arXiv:2501.07814cs.LGcs.AI2025-01

将异常检测嵌入训练过程,提升多变量时序预测精度

STTS-EAD: Improving Spatio-Temporal Learning Based Time Series Prediction via

  • 将时空信息用于异常检测与预测的联合优化
  • 在真实销售数据上实现显著优于基线的预测准确率
  • 适合需要高鲁棒性时序预测的应用场景

多变量时间序列预测中,异常处理是关键的预处理步骤。然而,现有方法将异常预处理与模型训练分离,存在明显局限:无法利用与时空因素相关的隐含异常信息,仅依赖数据分布进行异常检测,可能导致本可贡献训练的样本被错误处理。为此,我们提出STTS-EAD,一种端到端方法,将异常检测无缝集成到多变量时间序列预测的训练过程中,旨在通过嵌入式异常检测提升时空学习性能。该方法利用时空信息同时进行预测与异常检测,二者交替执行并相互优化。据我们所知,STTS-EAD是首个在训练阶段融合异常检测与预测任务以提升多变量时间序列预测准确率的方法。在公开股票数据集及某知名咖啡连锁企业的真实销售数据集上的大量实验表明,该方法可在训练阶段有效处理检测到的异常,显著提升推理阶段的预测性能,显著优于现有基线方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Handling anomalies is a critical preprocessing step in multivariate time series prediction. However, existing approaches that separate anomaly preprocessing from model training for multivariate time series prediction encounter significant limitations. Specifically, these methods fail to utilize auxiliary information crucial for identifying latent anomalies associated with spatiotemporal factors during the preprocessing stage. Instead, they rely solely on data distribution for anomaly detection, which can result in the incorrect processing of numerous samples that could otherwise contribute positively to model training. To address this, we propose STTS-EAD, an end-to-end method that seamlessly integrates anomaly detection into the training process of multivariate time series forecasting and aims to improve Spatio-Temporal learning based Time Series prediction via Embedded Anomaly Detection. Our proposed STTS-EAD leverages spatio-temporal information for forecasting and anomaly detection, with the two parts alternately executed and optimized for each other. To the best of our knowledge, STTS-EAD is the first to integrate anomaly detection and forecasting tasks in the training phase for improving the accuracy of multivariate time series forecasting. Extensive experiments on a public stock dataset and two real-world sales datasets from a renowned coffee chain enterprise show that our proposed method can effectively process detected anomalies in the training stage to improve forecasting performance in the inference stage and significantly outperform baselines.

时序预测异常检测时空建模

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