让图神经网络在不确定时主动放弃预测,提升关键任务的可靠性。
Predict Confidently, Predict Right: Abstention in Dynamic Graph Learning
- 引入基于覆盖率的拒决策略,动态图模型可在高不确定性时选择不预测。
- 在4个链接预测和2个节点分类数据集上,显著提升AUC/AP得分。
- 适合对精度要求高的动态图场景,如金融风控、医疗监测等
许多现实系统可建模为动态图,其中节点与边随时间演变,需专用模型捕捉其演化动态,尤其在风险敏感应用中。时序图神经网络(Temporal GNNs)是此类模型之一。本文首次将拒决选项策略集成到连续时间动态图的GNN框架中,使模型在不确定性高、置信度低时主动放弃预测,从而降低关键误判风险,提升结果可靠性。我们提出一种基于覆盖率的拒决预测模型,以最大化指定覆盖率下的预测准确率,在链接预测与节点分类任务中均取得性能提升。针对时序GNN面临的极端类别不平衡问题,该方法可进一步调整以强化对少数类的权重。在四个动态链接预测与两个动态节点分类数据集上进行充分实验,验证了该方法在提升预测可靠性及AUC/平均精度(AP)方面的有效性。结果表明,模型能高效平衡预测置信度与覆盖范围,适用于高精度要求的动态不确定环境。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Many real-world systems can be modeled as dynamic graphs, where nodes and edges evolve over time, requiring specialized models to capture their evolving dynamics in risk-sensitive applications effectively. Temporal graph neural networks (GNNs) are one such category of specialized models. For the first time, our approach integrates a reject option strategy within the framework of GNNs for continuous-time dynamic graphs. This allows the model to strategically abstain from making predictions when the uncertainty is high and confidence is low, thus minimizing the risk of critical misclassification and enhancing the results and reliability. We propose a coverage-based abstention prediction model to implement the reject option that maximizes prediction within a specified coverage. It improves the prediction score for link prediction and node classification tasks. Temporal GNNs deal with extremely skewed datasets for the next state prediction or node classification task. In the case of class imbalance, our method can be further tuned to provide a higher weightage to the minority class. Exhaustive experiments are presented on four datasets for dynamic link prediction and two datasets for dynamic node classification tasks. This demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach in improving the reliability and area under the curve (AUC)/ average precision (AP) scores for predictions in dynamic graph scenarios. The results highlight our model's ability to efficiently handle the trade-offs between prediction confidence and coverage, making it a dependable solution for applications requiring high precision in dynamic and uncertain environments.
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