双向深度调制网络提升时空预测精度
BiDepth: A Bidirectional-Depth Neural Network for Spatio-Temporal Prediction
- 通过双向深度调节动态适应长周期与短时波动
- 交通预测MSE降12%,降水预报提升15%
- 适合智慧城市与灾害预警场景使用
对城市交通、天气变化等动态系统的精准时空(ST)预测至关重要,但受限于复杂的时空相关性以及同时建模长期趋势与短期波动的挑战。现有方法在这些方面表现不佳。本文提出双向多模态神经网络(BDMNN),包含两项关键创新:1)双向深度调制机制,可动态调整网络深度,全面捕捉长期季节性与即时短时事件;2)新型卷积自注意力单元(CSAC),在保持空间关系清晰度的同时捕捉时间依赖性,优于传统注意力机制。在真实城市交通与降水数据集上评估,BDMNN相较主流深度学习模型如ConvLSTM,在计算资源相当的前提下,实现交通预测均方误差(MSE)降低12%,降水预报准确率提升15%。该方法为智慧城市建设、灾害预防与资源优化提供了稳健的时空预测支持。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate spatial-temporal (ST) prediction for dynamic systems, such as urban mobility and weather patterns, is crucial but hindered by complex ST correlations and the challenge of concurrently modeling long-term trends with short-term fluctuations. Existing methods often falter in these areas. This paper proposes the BiDepth Multimodal Neural Network (BDMNN), which integrates two key innovations: 1) a bidirectional depth modulation mechanism that dynamically adjusts network depth to comprehensively capture both long-term seasonality and immediate short-term events; and 2) a novel convolutional self-attention cell (CSAC). Critically, unlike many attention mechanisms that can lose spatial acuity, our CSAC is specifically designed to preserve crucial spatial relationships throughout the network, akin to standard convolutional layers, while simultaneously capturing temporal dependencies. Evaluated on real-world urban traffic and precipitation datasets, BDMNN demonstrates significant accuracy improvements, achieving a 12% Mean Squared Error (MSE) reduction in urban traffic prediction and a 15% improvement in precipitation forecasting over leading deep learning benchmarks like ConvLSTM, using comparable computational resources. These advancements offer robust ST forecasting for smart city management, disaster prevention, and resource optimization.
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