用生成模型解决二次事故数据不平衡问题,提升预测精度。
Spatiotemporal Prediction of Secondary Crashes by Rebalancing Dynamic and Static Data with Generative Adversarial Networks
- 融合动态与静态特征,用GAN生成高质量二次事故数据
- 首次实现二次事故发生与时空分布的联合预测,准确率更高
- 适合交通管理、智能驾驶领域研究人员参考
数据不平衡是分析和预测突发交通事件的常见难题。二次事故在所有事故中占比极低,但由一次事故引发,会显著加剧交通拥堵并加重事故后果。然而,二次事故数据严重失衡,严重影响预测模型的泛化能力和准确性。现有方法未能充分处理交通数据中动态与静态特征的共存问题,且常无法有效应对不同长度样本。此外,多数研究将二次事故的发生概率与时空分布分开预测,缺乏整合方案。为此,本文提出混合模型VarFusiGAN-Transformer,旨在提升二次事故数据生成的真实性,并联合预测其发生与时空分布。该模型采用长短期记忆网络(LSTM)增强多变量长时间序列数据生成,引入静态数据生成器与辅助判别器以建模动态与静态特征的联合分布。同时,预测模块可同步输出二次事故的发生与否及其时空分布。相比现有方法,该模型在生成高保真数据及提升预测精度方面表现更优。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Data imbalance is a common issue in analyzing and predicting sudden traffic events. Secondary crashes constitute only a small proportion of all crashes. These secondary crashes, triggered by primary crashes, significantly exacerbate traffic congestion and increase the severity of incidents. However, the severe imbalance of secondary crash data poses significant challenges for prediction models, affecting their generalization ability and prediction accuracy. Existing methods fail to fully address the complexity of traffic crash data, particularly the coexistence of dynamic and static features, and often struggle to effectively handle data samples of varying lengths. Furthermore, most current studies predict the occurrence probability and spatiotemporal distribution of secondary crashes separately, lacking an integrated solution. To address these challenges, this study proposes a hybrid model named VarFusiGAN-Transformer, aimed at improving the fidelity of secondary crash data generation and jointly predicting the occurrence and spatiotemporal distribution of secondary crashes. The VarFusiGAN-Transformer model employs Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enhance the generation of multivariate long-time series data, incorporating a static data generator and an auxiliary discriminator to model the joint distribution of dynamic and static features. In addition, the model's prediction module achieves simultaneous prediction of both the occurrence and spatiotemporal distribution of secondary crashes. Compared to existing methods, the proposed model demonstrates superior performance in generating high-fidelity data and improving prediction accuracy.
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