通过两阶段聚类识别日照模式,提升光伏规划与预测精度。
Two-level Solar Irradiance Clustering with Season Identification: A Comparative Analysis
- 先按晴天辐照度分季节,再按每日云量分清晰、多云、部分多云三类。
- β指数聚类法在多个指标上表现最优,且全年数据仍有效。
- 方法适用于不同地区,计算高效,适合大规模光伏数据处理。
太阳能辐照度聚类可增强光伏容量规划并改进预测模型,通过识别受季节和天气影响的相似辐照模式。本研究采用高效的两阶段聚类方法:第一阶段基于晴天辐照度自动识别季节;第二阶段在各季节内对每日云量进行清晰、多云、部分多云分类。比较了三种方法:日辐照指数(DII,即β)、欧氏距离(ED)和动态时间规整(DTW)。β为实测辐照积分与晴天辐照积分之比。使用标准聚类指标定量评估,结合平均辐照曲线定性对比。结果表明,β基聚类显著优于其他方法,成为新基准。尤其值得注意的是,β方法在年数据上仍保持有效性,而时序方法性能明显下降。有趣的是,计算开销更小的ED反而优于计算密集的DTW。该方法在两个美国不同地点的数据上经过严格验证,展现出良好的可扩展性及跨区域适用潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Solar irradiance clustering can enhance solar power capacity planning and help improve forecasting models by identifying similar irradiance patterns influenced by seasonal and weather changes. In this study, we adopt an efficient two-level clustering approach to automatically identify seasons using the clear sky irradiance in first level and subsequently to identify daily cloud level as clear, cloudy and partly cloudy within each season in second level. In the second level of clustering, three methods are compared, namely, Daily Irradiance Index (DII or $β$), Euclidean Distance (ED), and Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance. The DII is computed as the ratio of time integral of measured irradiance to time integral of the clear sky irradiance. The identified clusters were compared quantitatively using established clustering metrics and qualitatively by comparing the mean irradiance profiles. The results clearly establish the superiority of the $β$-based clustering approach as the leader, setting a new benchmark for solar irradiance clustering studies. Moreover, $β$-based clustering remains effective even for annual data unlike the time-series methods which suffer significant performance degradation. Interestingly, contrary to expectations, ED-based clustering outperforms the more compute-intensive DTW distance-based clustering. The method has been rigorously validated using data from two distinct US locations, demonstrating robust scalability for larger datasets and potential applicability for other locations.
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