arXiv:2501.10384cs.CYcs.HC2025-01

指出AI治理中三大理想化谬误,警惕不切实际的监管幻想。

Nirvana AI Governance: How AI Policymaking Is Committing Three Old Fallacies

  • 用经济学'乌托邦思维'分析政策漏洞,对比现实与理想世界
  • 揭示监管提案常忽视自身带来的成本与风险,非免费午餐
  • 适合关注政策可行性、反盲目乐观的科技与政策研究者

本文运用哈罗德·德姆塞茨的‘乌托邦式’分析框架,揭示当前AI治理提案中存在的三大常见谬误:一是误以为人类比机器更可靠、政府比企业自律更有效,却未充分比较现状与替代方案;二是提出监管工具时忽视其自身固有的损害与成本;三是基于对人工智能世界的错误理想化对比——将有风险的现实世界与一个全然无风险的虚构理想世界进行比较。正确的做法应是将存在风险的AI世界与充满风险但可共处的真实世界相比。这些谬误的普遍存在,反映出治理设计中过度理想化的倾向,可能导致不切实际甚至阻碍创新的监管,最终损害社会进步。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This research applies Harold Demsetz's concept of the nirvana approach to the realm of AI governance and debunks three common fallacies in various AI policy proposals--"the grass is always greener on the other side," "free lunch," and "the people could be different." Through this, I expose fundamental flaws in the current AI regulatory proposal. First, some commentators intuitively believe that people are more reliable than machines and that government works better in risk control than companies' self-regulation, but they do not fully compare the differences between the status quo and the proposed replacements. Second, when proposing some regulatory tools, some policymakers and researchers do not realize and even gloss over the fact that harms and costs are also inherent in their proposals. Third, some policy proposals are initiated based on a false comparison between the AI-driven world, where AI does lead to some risks, and an entirely idealized world, where no risk exists at all. However, the appropriate approach is to compare the world where AI causes risks to the real world where risks are everywhere, but people can live well with these risks. The prevalence of these fallacies in AI governance underscores a broader issue: the tendency to idealize potential solutions without fully considering their real-world implications. This idealization can lead to regulatory proposals that are not only impractical but potentially harmful to innovation and societal progress.

AI治理政策分析认知偏差监管科学

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