用因果推断揭示风电光伏对电价的非线性影响。
Do we actually understand the impact of renewables on electricity prices? A causal inference approach
- 采用局部部分线性双重机器学习法，突破传统回归局限。
- 风电呈倒U型影响：低渗透时每增1吉瓦时降价7英镑，中等水平时作用消失。
- 光伏初期降价显著（每增1吉瓦时降9英镑），但效果快速衰减，近年影响增强。
能源转型深刻重塑电力市场格局，厘清可再生能源发电对电价的真实影响至关重要。本文基于2018–2024年英国数据，采用局部部分线性双重机器学习方法，首次提供风能与太阳能发电对批发电价的稳健因果证据。结果表明：风电在低渗透阶段每增加1吉瓦时发电量，电价下降最高达7英镑/兆瓦时；在中等渗透率（20%-30%）时影响趋近于零，随后再次增强；光伏在极低渗透下每增1吉瓦时可使电价降低最多9英镑/兆瓦时，但影响迅速减弱。此外，风、光的降价效应随时间明显增强，反映其市场影响力持续上升。研究为政策制定提供了可操作的洞见。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The energy transition is profoundly reshaping electricity market dynamics. It makes it essential to understand how renewable energy generation actually impacts electricity prices, among all other market drivers. These insights are critical to design policies and market interventions that ensure affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy systems. However, identifying causal effects from observational data is a major challenge, requiring innovative causal inference approaches that go beyond conventional regression analysis only. We build upon the state of the art by developing and applying a local partially linear double machine learning approach. Its application yields the first robust causal evidence on the distinct and non-linear effects of wind and solar power generation on UK wholesale electricity prices, revealing key insights that have eluded previous analyses. We find that, over 2018-2024, wind power generation has a U-shaped effect on prices: at low penetration levels, a 1 GWh increase in energy generation reduces prices by up to 7 GBP/MWh, but this effect gets close to none at mid-penetration levels (20-30%) before intensifying again. Solar power places substantial downward pressure on prices at very low penetration levels (up to 9 GBP/MWh per 1 GWh increase in energy generation), though its impact weakens quite rapidly. We also uncover a critical trend where the price-reducing effects of both wind and solar power have become more pronounced over time (from 2018 to 2024), highlighting their growing influence on electricity markets amid rising penetration. Our study provides both novel analysis approaches and actionable insights to guide policymakers in appraising the way renewables impact electricity markets.
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