用神经网络精准预测公交车实时发车时间,提升城市公交准点率。
Real-Time Bus Departure Prediction Using Neural Networks for Smart IoT Public Bus Transit
- 基于历史发车数据构建全连接神经网络,实时预测下一站点发车时间。
- 在波士顿151条线路测试中,预测误差低于80秒,优于原平均4分钟偏差。
- 适合智慧公交、物联网公交站等需要高精度实时调度的场景使用。
公共交通中的公交系统在城市出行中至关重要,但常面临发车时间不准确的问题,导致延误、乘客不满及客流下降,尤其在依赖公交的区域更为显著。实际发车时间与计划时间的差异破坏了时刻表,影响整体运营效率。为此,本文提出一种面向智能物联网公交系统的神经网络实时发车时间预测方法。通过数据预处理、特征工程和全连接神经网络建模,利用历史发车数据预测后续站点的发车时间。在波士顿的数据案例研究中,原始数据平均偏离计划时间近4分钟。而本模型在151条公交线路上的评估显示,预测偏差可控制在80秒以内,显著提升调度可靠性。该成果有助于推动智能公交系统与物联网设备(如智能公交站、乘客信息系统)的集成,为依赖精确数据的应用提供支持。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Bus transit plays a vital role in urban public transportation but often struggles to provide accurate and reliable departure times. This leads to delays, passenger dissatisfaction, and decreased ridership, particularly in transit-dependent areas. A major challenge lies in the discrepancy between actual and scheduled bus departure times, which disrupts timetables and impacts overall operational efficiency. To address these challenges, this paper presents a neural network-based approach for real-time bus departure time prediction tailored for smart IoT public transit applications. We leverage AI-driven models to enhance the accuracy of bus schedules by preprocessing data, engineering relevant features, and implementing a fully connected neural network that utilizes historical departure data to predict departure times at subsequent stops. In our case study analyzing bus data from Boston, we observed an average deviation of nearly 4 minutes from scheduled times. However, our model, evaluated across 151 bus routes, demonstrates a significant improvement, predicting departure time deviations with an accuracy of under 80 seconds. This advancement not only improves the reliability of bus transit schedules but also plays a crucial role in enabling smart bus systems and IoT applications within public transit networks. By providing more accurate real-time predictions, our approach can facilitate the integration of IoT devices, such as smart bus stops and passenger information systems, that rely on precise data for optimal performance.
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