arXiv:2501.10533stat.MLcs.LG2025-01ICML被引 24

提出新型多输出置信预测方法,兼顾准确性和效率

A Unified Comparative Study with Generalized Conformity Scores for Multi-Output Conformal Regression

  • 设计两类广义符合性评分,适配生成模型与可逆模型
  • 在13个表格数据集上验证,保持有限样本边缘覆盖率
  • 统一代码框架实现9种方法对比,提升可复现性

置信预测提供了一种无需分布假设的预测区间构造方法,具备有限样本覆盖保证。尽管在单变量场景中已广泛研究,其在多输出问题中的扩展仍面临输出依赖复杂、计算成本高等挑战,相对未被充分探索。本文对九种基于不同多元基模型的置信预测方法进行统一比较研究,在同一框架下揭示其关键特性并探索相互关联。同时,提出两类新型多输出回归符合性评分,推广了单变量方法。这些评分确保渐近条件覆盖,同时保持精确的有限样本边际覆盖。一类兼容任意生成模型,适用性广;另一类利用可逆生成模型性质,计算高效。最后,在13个表格数据集上开展全面实证评估,所有方法均在统一代码库中实现,确保公平一致的比较。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conformal prediction provides a powerful framework for constructing distribution-free prediction regions with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While extensively studied in univariate settings, its extension to multi-output problems presents additional challenges, including complex output dependencies and high computational costs, and remains relatively underexplored. In this work, we present a unified comparative study of nine conformal methods with different multivariate base models for constructing multivariate prediction regions within the same framework. This study highlights their key properties while also exploring the connections between them. Additionally, we introduce two novel classes of conformity scores for multi-output regression that generalize their univariate counterparts. These scores ensure asymptotic conditional coverage while maintaining exact finite-sample marginal coverage. One class is compatible with any generative model, offering broad applicability, while the other is computationally efficient, leveraging the properties of invertible generative models. Finally, we conduct a comprehensive empirical evaluation across 13 tabular datasets, comparing all the multi-output conformal methods explored in this work. To ensure a fair and consistent comparison, all methods are implemented within a unified code base.

置信预测多输出回归生成模型

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