arXiv:2501.10625cs.LGcs.SY2025-01被引 4

通过统计检验发现自动驾驶车辆轨迹更符合马尔可夫特性。

Assessing Markov Property in Driving Behaviors: Insights from Statistical Tests

  • 用统计方法检验车辆轨迹是否满足马尔可夫性
  • 自动驾驶轨迹马尔可夫性强,人类驾驶轨迹变异性高
  • 结果对自动驾驶模型与交通仿真有重要指导意义

马尔可夫性是现有车辆行为研究的基础假设,认为未来状态仅依赖当前状态,而非历史序列。本研究通过统计方法验证了自动驾驶车辆(AVs)与人类驾驶车辆(HVs)轨迹的马尔可夫性质。基于两个公开轨迹数据集,采用t检验和F检验对比两类车辆在马尔可夫特性上的差异。结果显示,自动驾驶车辆轨迹普遍表现出更强的马尔可夫性,具有更高的符合率和更低的马尔可夫阶数;而人类驾驶车辆轨迹则呈现更高变异性和决策异质性,反映其复杂的感知与信息处理过程。这些发现对驾驶行为建模、自动驾驶控制器设计及交通仿真系统具有重要意义。本研究还证明了使用统计方法检验轨迹数据马尔可夫性的可行性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The Markov property serves as a foundational assumption in most existing work on vehicle driving behavior, positing that future states depend solely on the current state, not the series of preceding states. This study validates the Markov properties of vehicle trajectories for both Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) and Human-driven Vehicles (HVs). A statistical method used to test whether time series data exhibits Markov properties is applied to examine whether the trajectory data possesses Markov characteristics. t test and F test are additionally introduced to characterize the differences in Markov properties between AVs and HVs. Based on two public trajectory datasets, we investigate the presence and order of the Markov property of different types of vehicles through rigorous statistical tests. Our findings reveal that AV trajectories generally exhibit stronger Markov properties compared to HV trajectories, with a higher percentage conforming to the Markov property and lower Markov orders. In contrast, HV trajectories display greater variability and heterogeneity in decision-making processes, reflecting the complex perception and information processing involved in human driving. These results have significant implications for the development of driving behavior models, AV controllers, and traffic simulation systems. Our study also demonstrates the feasibility of using statistical methods to test the presence of Markov properties in driving trajectory data.

行为建模自动驾驶统计检验轨迹分析

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