arXiv:2501.11214cs.LG2025-01被引 3

用新模型提升城市预测公平性,减少中心区误差聚集。

Mitigating Spatial Disparity in Urban Prediction Using Residual-Aware Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks: A Chicago Case Study

  • 引入残差感知注意力模块与公平性损失函数,动态调整预测重点。
  • 芝加哥数据实验显示,公平性提升48%,误差仅增9%。
  • 适合关注城市公平、资源分配的规划者与政策制定者。

城市预测任务(如交通流量、温度、犯罪率)对高效城市管理至关重要。然而,现有时空图神经网络(ST-GNNs)仅关注整体准确率,忽视了空间与人口层面的预测偏差,可能导致资源分配不均,加剧城市不平等。本文提出残差感知注意力(RAA)模块与公平性增强损失函数,通过训练中自适应调整邻接矩阵并引入空间偏差度量,旨在降低残差与误差的局部集聚。以芝加哥出行需求数据为例,实验表明模型在公平性指标上提升48%,误差仅增加9%。空间残差分析显示,使用RAA模块的模型显著减少了中心区域的误差聚集。注意力热力图揭示模型能动态调整关注区域,实现更均衡的预测。多个社区案例进一步验证该方法在缓解空间与人口不平等方面的有效性,支持更公平的城市规划与政策制定。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Urban prediction tasks, such as forecasting traffic flow, temperature, and crime rates, are crucial for efficient urban planning and management. However, existing Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks (ST-GNNs) often rely solely on accuracy, overlooking spatial and demographic disparities in their predictions. This oversight can lead to imbalanced resource allocation and exacerbate existing inequities in urban areas. This study introduces a Residual-Aware Attention (RAA) Block and an equality-enhancing loss function to address these disparities. By adapting the adjacency matrix during training and incorporating spatial disparity metrics, our approach aims to reduce local segregation of residuals and errors. We applied our methodology to urban prediction tasks in Chicago, utilizing a travel demand dataset as an example. Our model achieved a 48% significant improvement in fairness metrics with only a 9% increase in error metrics. Spatial analysis of residual distributions revealed that models with RAA Blocks produced more equitable prediction results, particularly by reducing errors clustered in central regions. Attention maps demonstrated the model's ability to dynamically adjust focus, leading to more balanced predictions. Case studies of various community areas in Chicago further illustrated the effectiveness of our approach in addressing spatial and demographic disparities, supporting more balanced and equitable urban planning and policy-making.

城市预测公平性图神经网络时空建模

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