自动挑选最适合时间序列预测的神经网络结构。
Automatic selection of the best neural architecture for time series forecasting
- 融合LSTM、GRU、注意力和状态空间模块,动态组合成最优架构。
- 单层GRU/LSTM最省时,复合结构在精度上更优。
- 用户可自定义偏好,适配不同场景的模型选择需求。
时间序列预测在气象、医疗、能源、金融等领域至关重要。尽管LSTM、GRU、Transformer和状态空间模型(SSMs)已成为常用工具,但最优架构的选择仍具挑战性,因性能表现依赖于评估指标和数据集。本文提出一个灵活的自动化框架,通过集成LSTM、GRU、多头注意力和SSM模块,系统设计并评估多样化的网络结构。采用多目标优化方法,确定模块数量、顺序与组合方式,以匹配特定需求与评价目标。从生成的帕累托最优架构中,通过用户定义的偏好函数选取最佳模型。在四个真实应用中验证结果表明:仅追求训练速度时,单层GRU或LSTM通常最优;而为最大化精度或平衡多个目标时,最优架构往往是多种模块组合而成的复合结构。借助加权偏好函数,可有效权衡不同目标,发现新型上下文相关的最优架构。研究揭示:不存在通用最优架构,最佳模型应是根据用户标准与评估目标数据驱动的定制化复合设计。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series forecasting plays a pivotal role in a wide range of applications, including weather prediction, healthcare, structural health monitoring, predictive maintenance, energy systems, and financial markets. While models such as LSTM, GRU, Transformers, and State-Space Models (SSMs) have become standard tools in this domain, selecting the optimal architecture remains a challenge. Performance comparisons often depend on evaluation metrics and the datasets under analysis, making the choice of a universally optimal model controversial. In this work, we introduce a flexible automated framework for time series forecasting that systematically designs and evaluates diverse network architectures by integrating LSTM, GRU, multi-head Attention, and SSM blocks. Using a multi-objective optimization approach, our framework determines the number, sequence, and combination of blocks to align with specific requirements and evaluation objectives. From the resulting Pareto-optimal architectures, the best model for a given context is selected via a user-defined preference function. We validate our framework across four distinct real-world applications. Results show that a single-layer GRU or LSTM is usually optimal when minimizing training time alone. However, when maximizing accuracy or balancing multiple objectives, the best architectures are often composite designs incorporating multiple block types in specific configurations. By employing a weighted preference function, users can resolve trade-offs between objectives, revealing novel, context-specific optimal architectures. Our findings underscore that no single neural architecture is universally optimal for time series forecasting. Instead, the best-performing model emerges as a data-driven composite architecture tailored to user-defined criteria and evaluation objectives.
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