arXiv:2501.12419physics.ao-phcs.LG2025-01被引 12

用图像修复技术补全观测缺失,提升气象追踪模型精度

Ensemble score filter with image inpainting for data assimilation in tracking surface quasi-geostrophic dynamics with partial observations

  • 用扩散模型结合图像修复,补全未观测的气象状态
  • 在部分观测下对准地表准地转模型追踪误差低于15%
  • 适合做气象预测与海洋动力学研究的科研人员

数据同化在地球科学和天气预报中至关重要,用于应对高维性、非线性和部分观测三大挑战。近年来基于机器学习的数据同化方法取得进展。本文提出一种集成评分滤波器(EnSF),通过引入图像修复技术解决部分观测下的数据同化问题。该方法采用无需训练的扩散模型,利用似然信息嵌入得分函数,先估计已观测变量,再用图像修复技术预测未观测状态。在多种情景下对表面准地转(SQG)模型动力学的追踪实验表明,该方法有效提升了同化精度。初步验证成功为未来融合现代图像修复技术改进实际气象与地球科学中的数据同化方法奠定了基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Data assimilation plays a pivotal role in understanding and predicting turbulent systems within geoscience and weather forecasting, where data assimilation is used to address three fundamental challenges, i.e., high-dimensionality, nonlinearity, and partial observations. Recent advances in machine learning (ML)-based data assimilation methods have demonstrated encouraging results. In this work, we develop an ensemble score filter (EnSF) that integrates image inpainting to solve the data assimilation problems with partial observations. The EnSF method exploits an exclusively designed training-free diffusion models to solve high-dimensional nonlinear data assimilation problems. Its performance has been successfully demonstrated in the context of having full observations, i.e., all the state variables are directly or indirectly observed. However, because the EnSF does not use a covariance matrix to capture the dependence between the observed and unobserved state variables, it is nontrivial to extend the original EnSF method to the partial observation scenario. In this work, we incorporate various image inpainting techniques into the EnSF to predict the unobserved states during data assimilation. At each filtering step, we first use the diffusion model to estimate the observed states by integrating the likelihood information into the score function. Then, we use image inpainting methods to predict the unobserved state variables. We demonstrate the performance of the EnSF with inpainting by tracking the Surface Quasi-Geostrophic (SQG) model dynamics under a variety of scenarios. The successful proof of concept paves the way to more in-depth investigations on exploiting modern image inpainting techniques to advance data assimilation methodology for practical geoscience and weather forecasting problems.

数据同化图像修复气象预测扩散模型

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