用可解释AI技术提升因果发现准确率,让机器自动找出变量间真实因果关系。
REX: Causal discovery based on machine learning and explainability techniques
- 结合机器学习与Shapley值等可解释技术,识别变量间关键因果关系。
- 在合成数据上优于现有方法,真实数据集精确率达0.952,无错误边。
- 适合需要可解释因果分析的医疗、经济等领域研究者使用。
可解释人工智能(XAI)技术在增强因果发现过程方面具有巨大潜力,这对理解医疗、经济及人工智能等领域中的复杂系统至关重要。然而,当前尚无因果发现方法将可解释性融入模型以推导因果图。本文提出ReX,一种基于机器学习模型与可解释性技术(特别是Shapley值)的因果发现方法,用于识别和解释变量间的显著因果关系。在包含连续表格数据的合成数据集上进行对比评估,ReX在多种数据生成过程(包括非线性和加性噪声模型)下均优于现有先进方法。此外,ReX在Sachs单细胞蛋白信号数据集上的测试中实现了0.952的精确度,并成功恢复了关键因果关系,未引入错误边。结果表明,ReX在准确恢复真实因果结构的同时,显著减少误报,具备跨数据集的鲁棒性及对现实问题的应用价值。通过融合机器学习、可解释性与因果发现,ReX弥合了预测建模与因果推断之间的差距,为理解复杂因果结构提供了有效工具。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques hold significant potential for enhancing the causal discovery process, which is crucial for understanding complex systems in areas like healthcare, economics, and artificial intelligence. However, no causal discovery methods currently incorporate explainability into their models to derive the causal graphs. Thus, in this paper we explore this innovative approach, as it offers substantial potential and represents a promising new direction worth investigating. Specifically, we introduce ReX, a causal discovery method that leverages machine learning (ML) models coupled with explainability techniques, specifically Shapley values, to identify and interpret significant causal relationships among variables. Comparative evaluations on synthetic datasets comprising continuous tabular data reveal that ReX outperforms state-of-the-art causal discovery methods across diverse data generation processes, including non-linear and additive noise models. Moreover, ReX was tested on the Sachs single-cell protein-signaling dataset, achieving a precision of 0.952 and recovering key causal relationships with no incorrect edges. Taking together, these results showcase ReX's effectiveness in accurately recovering true causal structures while minimizing false positive predictions, its robustness across diverse datasets, and its applicability to real-world problems. By combining ML and explainability techniques with causal discovery, ReX bridges the gap between predictive modeling and causal inference, offering an effective tool for understanding complex causal structures.
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