用时间加权法填补多发性硬化患者缺失的神经功能评分,提升病情预测准确率。
Longitudinal Missing Data Imputation for Predicting Disability Stage of Patients with Multiple Sclerosis
- 采用指数加权移动平均法填补缺失的神经功能子评分
- 结合决策树与SVM模型,使病情阶段预测准确率最高
- 适合临床研究中处理不规则随访数据的医生和算法工程师
多发性硬化(MS)是一种慢性疾病,表现为运动、感觉、视觉和认知等神经功能的进行性或交替性损伤。通过概率化、时间依赖的方法预测疾病进展,有助于提出延缓病情发展的干预措施。然而,从不规则收集的纵向数据中提取有效信息困难,缺失数据构成重大挑战。MS进展通过扩展残疾状态量表(EDSS)量化并监测,该量表评估八个功能系统(FS)的损伤情况。通常仅报告临床医生给出的EDSS总分,而各功能系统子评分常缺失。填补这些子评分有助于根据疾病进展过程对患者进行表型分层。本研究旨在:(i) 探索不同方法填补缺失的FS子评分;(ii) 利用完整临床数据预测EDSS分数。结果表明,指数加权移动平均法在缺失数据填补任务中误差最低;此外,采用分类回归树(CART)进行填补、支持向量机(SVM)进行预测的组合表现最佳。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disease characterized by progressive or alternate impairment of neurological functions (motor, sensory, visual, and cognitive). Predicting disease progression with a probabilistic and time-dependent approach might help in suggesting interventions that can delay the progression of the disease. However, extracting informative knowledge from irregularly collected longitudinal data is difficult, and missing data pose significant challenges. MS progression is measured through the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), which quantifies and monitors disability in MS over time. EDSS assesses impairment in eight functional systems (FS). Frequently, only the EDSS score assigned by clinicians is reported, while FS sub-scores are missing. Imputing these scores might be useful, especially to stratify patients according to their phenotype assessed over the disease progression. This study aimed at i) exploring different methodologies for imputing missing FS sub-scores, and ii) predicting the EDSS score using complete clinical data. Results show that Exponential Weighted Moving Average achieved the lowest error rate in the missing data imputation task; furthermore, the combination of Classification and Regression Trees for the imputation and SVM for the prediction task obtained the best accuracy.
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