融合专家经验与强化学习,动态追踪技术趋势变化。
Exploring the Technology Landscape through Topic Modeling, Expert Involvement, and Reinforcement Learning
- 用主题建模结合专家关键词构建领域特定主题模型。
- 通过强化学习优化主题选择,平衡多样性与相似性。
- 适合战略规划、技术预见等需要动态洞察的组织使用。
在快速演变的技术环境中,组织面临将外部洞察融入决策以保持竞争力的挑战。为此,本研究提出一种结合主题建模、专家知识输入与强化学习(RL)的方法,以增强对技术变化的检测能力。方法包含四个步骤:(1)基于文档和报告等文本数据构建相关主题模型,识别关键主题;(2)利用专家精选关键词构建面向方面的主题模型,突出领域特定特征;(3)通过迭代分析与强化学习驱动的优化,评估主题幅度、相似度、熵变及随时间的变化,以奖励函数平衡主题的多样性与相似性,优化主题选择;(4)综合分析并实现业务集成,每轮迭代提供洞察,最终由专家验证并形成可应用于企业运营的新结论。该方法在量子通信趋势预测中得到验证,结果表明其能有效识别、排序与追踪与专家输入一致的技术趋势,为组织在动态环境中制定明智战略提供可扩展、自适应的解决方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In today's rapidly evolving technological landscape, organizations face the challenge of integrating external insights into their decision-making processes to stay competitive. To address this issue, this study proposes a method that combines topic modeling, expert knowledge inputs, and reinforcement learning (RL) to enhance the detection of technological changes. The method has four main steps: (1) Build a relevant topic model, starting with textual data like documents and reports to find key themes. (2) Create aspect-based topic models. Experts use curated keywords to build models that showcase key domain-specific aspects. (3) Iterative analysis and RL driven refinement: We examine metrics such as topic magnitude, similarity, entropy shifts, and how models change over time. We optimize topic selection with RL. Our reward function balances the diversity and similarity of the topics. (4) Synthesis and operational integration: Each iteration provides insights. In the final phase, the experts check these insights and reach new conclusions. These conclusions are designed for use in the firm's operational processes. The application is tested by forecasting trends in quantum communication. Results demonstrate the method's effectiveness in identifying, ranking, and tracking trends that align with expert input, providing a robust tool for exploring evolving technological landscapes. This research offers a scalable and adaptive solution for organizations to make informed strategic decisions in dynamic environments.
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