arXiv:2501.14266cs.LG2025-01

用生成模型精准预测交通中物体未来位置密度,提升自动驾驶安全性。

TrajFlow: A Generative Framework for Occupancy Density Estimation Using Normalizing Flows

  • 基于因果编码器与归一化流,直接建模未来位置的边缘分布。
  • 在复杂场景下轨迹预测准确率显著优于传统方法,支持连续采样。
  • 适合自动驾驶、交通模拟等需要精确占位密度的应用场景。

为保障智能交通系统和自动驾驶车辆在复杂交通环境中的安全高效运行,必须可靠预测周围动态目标未来的运动轨迹。然而,这些目标的运动具有固有不确定性,导致精确预测极具挑战。本文提出一种名为TrajFlow的生成框架,用于估计动态目标的占位密度。该框架采用因果编码器提取观测轨迹的语义嵌入,并利用归一化流解码嵌入,以确定未来某一时刻目标最可能的位置。与现有方法不同,本工作建模的是空间位置的边缘分布,而非未观测轨迹的联合分布。边缘分布的优势包括:在具有挑战性的轨迹预测基准上实现更高精度;支持未来位置的完全连续采样;且更适合下游任务,如生成每个目标的运动轨迹和占位网格——这两种表示是运动预测中最常用的形态。我们设计了一种完全基于神经微分方程的新型架构来实现该框架,并通过消融实验验证了连续实现相比传统离散神经网络方法的优势。代码已公开于 https://github.com/UMN-Choi-Lab/TrajFlow。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

For intelligent transportation systems and autonomous vehicles to operate safely and efficiently, they must reliably predict the future motion and trajectory of surrounding agents within complex traffic environments. At the same time, the motion of these agents is inherently uncertain, making accurate prediction difficult. In this paper, we propose \textbf{TrajFlow}, a generative framework for estimating the occupancy density of dynamic agents. Our framework utilizes a causal encoder to extract semantically meaningful embeddings of the observed trajectory, as well as a normalizing flow to decode these embeddings and determine the most likely future location of an agent at some time point in the future. Our formulation differs from existing approaches because we model the marginal distribution of spatial locations instead of the joint distribution of unobserved trajectories. The advantages of a marginal formulation are numerous. First, we demonstrate that the marginal formulation produces higher accuracy on challenging trajectory forecasting benchmarks. Second, the marginal formulation allows for fully continuous sampling of future locations. Finally, marginal densities are better suited for downstream tasks as they allow for the computation of per-agent motion trajectories and occupancy grids, the two most commonly used representations for motion forecasting. We present a novel architecture based entirely on neural differential equations as an implementation of this framework and provide ablations to demonstrate the advantages of a continuous implementation over a more traditional discrete neural network based approach. The code is available at https://github.com/UMN-Choi-Lab/TrajFlow.

轨迹预测生成模型自动驾驶

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