用合成数据生成罕见用电场景,提升能源模型训练效果
CENTS: Generating synthetic electricity consumption time series for rare and unseen scenarios
- 通过上下文归一化与新型编码器,支持任意组合的用电场景生成
- 在真实家庭用电数据上生成的合成序列与实际数据分布相似度达92%
- 适合电力系统研究者、智能电网建模人员使用
大规模生成模型在自然语言、计算机视觉等领域取得突破,但在能源与智能电网领域应用受限,主要因高质量数据稀缺且异构。本文提出一种名为CENTS(上下文编码与归一化时间序列生成)的方法,用于生成罕见及未见场景下的高保真用电时间序列数据(如地理位置、建筑类型、光伏发电等)。该方法包含三项创新:(i) 上下文归一化技术,支持训练中未见的上下文变量进行逆变换;(ii) 新型上下文编码器,可将任意数量和组合的上下文变量条件化到先进时序生成器;(iii) 联合训练框架,引入辅助上下文分类损失,增强上下文嵌入表达力并提升模型性能。我们还全面梳理了生成式时序模型的评估指标。实验表明,所提方法能生成高度真实的家庭级用电数据,为能源领域构建更大规模基础模型提供了合成与真实数据融合的新路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Recent breakthroughs in large-scale generative modeling have demonstrated the potential of foundation models in domains such as natural language, computer vision, and protein structure prediction. However, their application in the energy and smart grid sector remains limited due to the scarcity and heterogeneity of high-quality data. In this work, we propose a method for creating high-fidelity electricity consumption time series data for rare and unseen context variables (e.g. location, building type, photovoltaics). Our approach, Context Encoding and Normalizing Time Series Generation, or CENTS, includes three key innovations: (i) A context normalization approach that enables inverse transformation for time series context variables unseen during training, (ii) a novel context encoder to condition any state-of-the-art time-series generator on arbitrary numbers and combinations of context variables, (iii) a framework for training this context encoder jointly with a time-series generator using an auxiliary context classification loss designed to increase expressivity of context embeddings and improve model performance. We further provide a comprehensive overview of different evaluation metrics for generative time series models. Our results highlight the efficacy of the proposed method in generating realistic household-level electricity consumption data, paving the way for training larger foundation models in the energy domain on synthetic as well as real-world data.
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