arXiv:2501.15425cs.IRphysics.soc-ph2025-01

建模野豺群中疫苗与捕杀的协同效应,揭示传播路径关键影响因素。

An Empirically-parametrized Spatio-Temporal Extended-SIR Model for Combined Dilution and Vaccination Mitigation for Rabies Outbreaks in Wild Jackals

  • 基于图结构构建时空扩展SIR模型,模拟疫苗与捕杀的动态交互
  • 在以色列北部豺群中验证:干预效果受活动中心间扩散影响显著
  • 研究为野生动物狂犬病防控提供可落地的策略参考

动物与人类之间人畜共患病的传播威胁日益加剧。狂犬病是全球多地存在的典型病例,其传播常因中型掠食者(如金豺)数量激增而加剧,这得益于人类活动资源丰富导致其种群密集并靠近人类聚居区。为遏制狂犬病暴发及预防人畜感染,监管机构通常通过在豺类活动中心投放口服疫苗,并进行随机捕杀以降低种群密度来控制。由于捕杀不区分健康或未接种个体,这两种互补的疫病干预措施(EIPs)可能相互干扰。然而,现有研究对这两类措施的协同效应及其对狂犬病流行动力学的影响缺乏充分评估,亟需深入理解。本研究提出一种新型基于图结构的空间-时间扩展SIR模型,用于评估干预效率。以以色列北部豺群为案例,利用真实世界动物追踪系统(ATLAS)收集的空间与移动数据进行建模。通过基于代理的仿真方法,探索多种生物学合理情景,评估不同干预配置的影响。结果显示,在生物合理性假设下,两种干预措施的效果不受豺群总体规模显著影响,但对其在活动中心间的扩散行为高度敏感。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The transmission of zoonotic diseases between animals and humans poses an increasing threat. Rabies is a prominent example with various instances globally, facilitated by a surplus of meso-predators (commonly, facultative synanthropic species e.g., golden jackals [Canis aureus, hereafter jackals]) thanks to the abundance of anthropogenic resources leading to dense populations close to human establishments. To mitigate rabies outbreaks and prevent human infections, authorities target the jackal which is the main rabies vector in many regions, through the dissemination of oral vaccines in known jackals' activity centers, as well as opportunistic culling to reduce population density. Because dilution (i.e., culling) is not selective towards sick or un-vaccinated individuals, these two complementary epizootic intervention policies (EIPs) can interfere with each other. Nonetheless, there is only limited examination of the interactive effectiveness of these EIPs and their potential influence on rabies epizootic spread dynamics, highlighting the need to understand these measures and the spread of rabies in wild jackals. In this study, we introduce a novel spatio-temporal extended-SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model with a graph-based spatial framework for evaluating mitigation efficiency. We implement the model in a case study using a jackal population in northern Israel, and using spatial and movement data collected by Advanced Tracking and Localization of Animals in real-life Systems (ATLAS) telemetry. An agent-based simulation approach allows us to explore various biologically-realistic scenarios, and assess the impact of different EIPs configurations. Our model suggests that under biologically-realistic underlying assumptions and scenarios, the effectiveness of both EIPs is not influenced much by the jackal population size but is sensitive to their dispersal between activity centers.

狂犬病防控空间模型代理人仿真野生动物管理

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