arXiv:2501.15731cs.LGcs.AI2025-01

对比多种深度学习模型,提升光伏发电预测精度。

Renewable Energy Prediction: A Comparative Study of Deep Learning Models for Complex Dataset Analysis

  • 比较7种DL模型在12地光伏数据上的表现
  • 早停+丢弃+L1正则对大样本最优
  • 适合新能源预测与模型优化研究者

可再生能源发电预测日益受到关注,深度学习(DL)因其能捕捉复杂非线性关系而优于传统机器学习。本研究通过对比不同方法及训练测试比例,在包含12个地点气象与光伏功率数据的复合数据集上评估了七种模型:LSTM、堆叠LSTM、CNN、CNN-LSTM、DNN、时序分布式MLP(TD-MLP)和自编码器(AE)。采用早停、神经元丢弃、L1和L2正则化等正则化技术缓解过拟合。结果表明:在大样本下,早停+丢弃+L1正则化对CNN和TD-MLP效果最佳;在小样本下,早停+丢弃+L2正则化对CNN-LSTM和AE最有效。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The increasing focus on predicting renewable energy production aligns with advancements in deep learning (DL). The inherent variability of renewable sources and the complexity of prediction methods require robust approaches, such as DL models, in the renewable energy sector. DL models are preferred over traditional machine learning (ML) because they capture complex, nonlinear relationships in renewable energy datasets. This study examines key factors influencing DL technique accuracy, including sampling and hyperparameter optimization, by comparing various methods and training and test ratios within a DL framework. Seven machine learning methods, LSTM, Stacked LSTM, CNN, CNN-LSTM, DNN, Time-Distributed MLP (TD-MLP), and Autoencoder (AE), are evaluated using a dataset combining weather and photovoltaic power output data from 12 locations. Regularization techniques such as early stopping, neuron dropout, L1 and L2 regularization are applied to address overfitting. The results demonstrate that the combination of early stopping, dropout, and L1 regularization provides the best performance to reduce overfitting in the CNN and TD-MLP models with larger training set, while the combination of early stopping, dropout, and L2 regularization is the most effective to reduce the overfitting in CNN-LSTM and AE models with smaller training set.

能源预测深度学习模型对比

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