arXiv:2501.16388cs.LGstat.AP2025-01被引 8

用真实病历数据构建动态肾衰预测模型,提升早期干预准确性。

Development and Validation of a Dynamic Kidney Failure Prediction Model based on Deep Learning: A Real-World Study with External Validation

  • 基于电子病历中的长期临床指标,构建可实时更新的动态预测模型。
  • 在四组独立数据中表现优异,内部验证AUROC达0.931,外部最高达0.936。
  • 已部署于医院系统与公开平台,适合临床医生日常使用。

慢性肾病(CKD)是高发病率和死亡率的进行性疾病,已成为全球重大公共卫生问题。现有模型多为静态,难以捕捉疾病进展的时间趋势,限制了及时干预能力。本研究通过整合真实世界电子健康记录(EHR)中的常见纵向临床指标,开发了一种动态预测模型。基于4,587例患者的回顾性队列(其中2,752例用于训练,917例用于内部验证,918例用于内部测试)进行模型构建,并在三个外部队列(北京大学人民医院队列:934例;C-STRIDE队列:1,570例;iCaReMe队列:498例)中进行验证。模型在内部及三组外部验证中均表现良好,分别取得AUROC 0.9311(95% CI: 0.8873–0.9749)、0.8141(0.7728–0.8554)、0.8427(0.8213–0.8641)和0.9359(0.9031–0.9687)。模型具备持续优化的动态预测能力、良好校准性和临床可解释性。KFDeep已上线开放网站并应用于基层医疗场景。该模型可在不增加检查成本的前提下实现肾衰动态预警,已嵌入医院系统,为临床提供持续更新的决策支持工具。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD), a progressive disease with high morbidity and mortality, has become a significant global public health problem. Most existing models are static and fail to capture temporal trends in disease progression, limiting their ability to inform timely interventions. We address this gap by developing a dynamic model that leverages common longitudinal clinical indicators from real-world electronic health records (EHRs) for real-time kidney failure prediction. Findings: A retrospective cohort of 4,587 patients from the CK-NET-Yinzhou Dataset was used for model development (2,752 patients for training, 917 patients for validation) and internal validation (918 patients). External validation was performed in three cohorts: the prospective PKUFH cohort (934 patients), the C-STRIDE cohort (1,570 patients), and the iCaReMe cohort (498 patients). The model demonstrated competitive performance across the internal and three external validation cohorts, achieving AUROCs of 0.9311 (95% CI, 0.8873-0.9749), 0.8141 (0.7728-0.8554), 0.8427 (0.8213-0.8641), and 0.9359 (0.9031-0.9687), respectively. The model also demonstrated progressively improving dynamic predictions, good calibration, and clinically consistent interpretability. KFDeep has been deployed on an open-access website and in primary care settings. Interpretation: The KFDeep model enables dynamic prediction of kidney failure without increasing clinical examination costs. It has been integrated into existing hospital systems, providing physicians with a continuously updated decision-support tool in routine care.

肾衰预测深度学习动态建模临床决策

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