用时空概率热图评估自动驾驶碰撞风险,提升安全决策精度。
Dynamic Risk Assessment for Autonomous Vehicles from Spatio-Temporal Probabilistic Occupancy Heatmaps
- 基于时空概率热图预测周边车辆位置,量化未来轨迹不确定性
- 结合车辆相对运动使用Cox模型动态调整碰撞风险
- 在蒙特卡洛仿真中优于传统安全指标,适合实时驾驶决策
在动态交通场景中准确评估碰撞风险是自动驾驶车辆路径规划的关键,也支持对自动驾驶系统进行全面的安全评估。本文提出一种新的概率占据风险评估(PORA)指标,利用时空热图作为周围交通参与者的位置概率预测,基于潜在车辆交互估算自动驾驶车辆计划轨迹上的碰撞风险。概率占据的使用使PORA能够将交通参与者未来轨迹和速度的不确定性纳入风险估计。随后,通过考虑自动驾驶车辆与周围参与者相对运动的Cox模型进一步调整潜在车辆交互带来的风险。实验表明,该方法显著提升了动态交通场景中碰撞风险评估的准确性,从而实现更安全的车辆控制,并为自动驾驶系统的实时决策提供稳健框架。蒙特卡洛仿真验证显示,PORA在准确刻画碰撞风险方面优于其他安全代理指标。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurately assessing collision risk in dynamic traffic scenarios is a crucial requirement for trajectory planning in autonomous vehicles~(AVs) and enables a comprehensive safety evaluation of automated driving systems. To that end, this paper presents a novel probabilistic occupancy risk assessment~(PORA) metric. It uses spatiotemporal heatmaps as probabilistic occupancy predictions of surrounding traffic participants and estimates the risk of a collision along an AV's planned trajectory based on potential vehicle interactions. The use of probabilistic occupancy allows PORA to account for the uncertainty in future trajectories and velocities of traffic participants in the risk estimates. The risk from potential vehicle interactions is then further adjusted through a Cox model\edit{,} which considers the relative \edit{motion} between the AV and surrounding traffic participants. We demonstrate that the proposed approach enhances the accuracy of collision risk assessment in dynamic traffic scenarios, resulting in safer vehicle controllers, and provides a robust framework for real-time decision-making in autonomous driving systems. From evaluation in Monte Carlo simulations, PORA is shown to be more effective at accurately characterizing collision risk compared to other safety surrogate measures. Keywords: Dynamic Risk Assessment, Autonomous Vehicle, Probabilistic Occupancy, Driving Safety
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