arXiv:2501.16599cs.LG2025-01被引 1

用概率轨迹预测评估城市空中交通航线可行性,保障飞行安全。

Toward Safe Integration of UAM in Terminal Airspace: UAM Route Feasibility Assessment using Probabilistic Aircraft Trajectory Prediction

  • 基于条件归一化流预测传统飞机轨迹分布,支持UAM动态避让。
  • 首尔机场周边测试显示低空1号航路交互最少、间隔最大、延误最稳定。
  • 靠近机场的4号航路因起飞飞机数据少,易出现紧密间隔和操作难题。

将城市空中交通(UAM)融入由空中交通管制(ATC)管理的终端空域面临重大挑战,尤其在繁忙区域。本研究提出一种基于概率飞机轨迹预测的框架,用于评估UAM航线整合的可行性。通过使用条件归一化流,该框架预测传统飞机的短期轨迹分布,使UAM飞行器可动态调整速度并保持安全间隔。方法应用于首尔都市区空域,涵盖多高度层与航路中UAM与传统航空器的交互。结果显示,不同物理位置的航路呈现不同的交互模式与相遇动态:1,500英尺和2,000英尺高度的1号航路与传统飞机交互最少,分离距离最大,延误比例最稳定;而靠近机场的4号航路因接近离场航班,交互更频繁且复杂。该区域离场飞机轨迹数据有限,偶发导致间隔收紧与运行挑战增加。研究强调预测建模在促进UAM整合中的潜力,同时揭示了安全与效率之间的关键权衡。成果有助于优化空域管理策略,并为复杂城市环境中规模化推进UAM提供参考。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Integrating Urban Air Mobility (UAM) into airspace managed by Air Traffic Control (ATC) poses significant challenges, particularly in congested terminal environments. This study proposes a framework to assess the feasibility of UAM route integration using probabilistic aircraft trajectory prediction. By leveraging conditional Normalizing Flows, the framework predicts short-term trajectory distributions of conventional aircraft, enabling UAM vehicles to dynamically adjust speeds and maintain safe separations. The methodology was applied to airspace over Seoul metropolitan area, encompassing interactions between UAM and conventional traffic at multiple altitudes and lanes. The results reveal that different physical locations of lanes and routes experience varying interaction patterns and encounter dynamics. For instance, Lane 1 at lower altitudes (1,500 ft and 2,000 ft) exhibited minimal interactions with conventional aircraft, resulting in the largest separations and the most stable delay proportions. In contrast, Lane 4 near the airport experienced more frequent and complex interactions due to its proximity to departing traffic. The limited trajectory data for departing aircraft in this region occasionally led to tighter separations and increased operational challenges. This study underscores the potential of predictive modeling in facilitating UAM integration while highlighting critical trade-offs between safety and efficiency. The findings contribute to refining airspace management strategies and offer insights for scaling UAM operations in complex urban environments.

城市空中交通轨迹预测空域管理安全评估

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