融合宏观微观多源信息,提升中国股市预测精度。
Chinese Stock Prediction Based on a Multi-Modal Transformer Framework: Macro-Micro Information Fusion
- 分通道编码+动态加权融合,有效整合多模态数据。
- 事件影响量化准确率提升41.2%,沪深300预测误差降23.7%。
- 适合关注量化选股与事件驱动策略的研究者。
本文提出一种新型多模态Transformer框架(MMF-Trans),通过融合宏观经济、微观市场、金融文本和事件知识图谱等多源异构信息,显著提升中国股票市场预测准确性。框架包含四个核心模块:(1) 四通道并行编码器分别处理技术指标、金融文本、宏观数据和事件知识图谱,实现多模态特征独立提取;(2) 动态门控跨模态融合机制,通过可微权重分配自适应学习各模态重要性,实现高效信息集成;(3) 时间对齐的混合频率处理层,采用创新位置编码方法融合不同时间频率数据,解决异构数据时间对齐问题;(4) 基于图注意力的事件影响量化模块,通过事件知识图谱捕捉事件对市场的动态影响,并量化事件冲击系数。引入混合频率Transformer与Event2Vec算法,有效融合多频数据并量化事件影响。在沪深300成分股预测任务中,MMF-Trans框架的均方根误差(RMSE)相比基线模型降低23.7%,事件响应预测准确率提升41.2%,夏普比率提高32.6%。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper proposes an innovative Multi-Modal Transformer framework (MMF-Trans) designed to significantly improve the prediction accuracy of the Chinese stock market by integrating multi-source heterogeneous information including macroeconomy, micro-market, financial text, and event knowledge. The framework consists of four core modules: (1) A four-channel parallel encoder that processes technical indicators, financial text, macro data, and event knowledge graph respectively for independent feature extraction of multi-modal data; (2) A dynamic gated cross-modal fusion mechanism that adaptively learns the importance of different modalities through differentiable weight allocation for effective information integration; (3) A time-aligned mixed-frequency processing layer that uses an innovative position encoding method to effectively fuse data of different time frequencies and solves the time alignment problem of heterogeneous data; (4) A graph attention-based event impact quantification module that captures the dynamic impact of events on the market through event knowledge graph and quantifies the event impact coefficient. We introduce a hybrid-frequency Transformer and Event2Vec algorithm to effectively fuse data of different frequencies and quantify the event impact. Experimental results show that in the prediction task of CSI 300 constituent stocks, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the MMF-Trans framework is reduced by 23.7% compared to the baseline model, the event response prediction accuracy is improved by 41.2%, and the Sharpe ratio is improved by 32.6%.
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