arXiv:2501.16642eess.SPcs.LG2025-01NeurIPS被引 14

FlowDAS用随机插值建模状态演化,实现更真实、可解释的动态预测。

FlowDAS: A Stochastic Interpolant-based Framework for Data Assimilation

  • 基于随机插值直接学习状态转移,分步生成更贴近真实过程
  • 在洛伦兹-63与气象预报中精度超越传统方法与扩散模型
  • 适合动态未知或观测稀疏场景,尤其适用于物理系统建模

数据同化(DA)通过融合观测与动力模型来估计偏微分方程(PDE)驱动系统的状态。传统模型驱动方法(如卡尔曼滤波、粒子滤波)需完全掌握真实动力学,而纯数据驱动方法则学习确定性映射,忽略真实过程的内在随机性。近期基于得分的扩散模型虽能建模全局扩散先验,但其一次性生成方式难以处理复杂随机过程,且缺乏物理可解释性。为此,本文提出FlowDAS,一种基于随机插值的生成式数据同化框架,直接学习状态转移动态,实现逐步过渡以更好建模真实演化。通过在每个插值步骤条件化观测,提升预测稳定性与观测一致性。在洛伦兹-63系统、纳维-斯托克斯超分辨率/稀疏观测场景及大规模气象预报任务中的实验表明,当动力学部分或完全未知时,FlowDAS在准确性和物理合理性上均优于模型驱动方法、神经算子和基于得分的基线模型。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Data assimilation (DA) integrates observations with a dynamical model to estimate states of PDE-governed systems. Model-driven methods (e.g., Kalman, particle) presuppose full knowledge of the true dynamics, which is not always satisfied in practice, while purely data-driven solvers learn a deterministic mapping between observations and states and therefore miss the intrinsic stochasticity of real processes. Recently, score-based diffusion models learn a global diffusion prior and provide a good modeling of the stochastic dynamics, showing new potential for DA. However, their all-at-once generation rather than step-by-step transition limits their performance when dealing with highly complex stochastic processes and lacks physical interpretability. To tackle these drawbacks, we introduce FlowDAS, a generative DA framework that uses stochastic interpolants to directly learn state transition dynamics and achieve step-by-step transition to better model the real dynamics. We also improve the framework by combining the observation, better suiting the DA settings. Directly learning the underlying dynamics from collected data removes restrictive dynamical assumptions, and conditioning on observations at each interpolation step yields stable, measurement-consistent forecasts. Experiments on Lorenz-63, Navier-Stokes super-resolution/sparse-observation scenarios, and large-scale weather forecasting -- where dynamics are partly or wholly unknown -- show that FlowDAS surpasses model-driven methods, neural operators, and score-based baselines in accuracy and physical plausibility.

数据同化随机建模生成模型物理系统

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