用网格搜索优化的集成学习框架,提升降雨预测精度
RAINER: A Robust Ensemble Learning Grid Search-Tuned Framework for Rainfall Patterns Prediction
- 采用网格搜索系统调优超参数,结合多种机器学习模型
- 引入温湿差等新气象特征,捕捉天气动态变化规律
- 适合气候建模与环境预测领域研究人员参考
降雨预测因气象数据的高度非线性和复杂性而持续面临挑战。现有方法缺乏对网格搜索的系统应用以实现最优超参数调优,多依赖启发式或人工选择,常导致次优结果。此外,这些方法很少融合新构建的气象特征(如温湿度差)来捕捉关键天气动态,且对集成学习技术缺乏系统评估,对近一两年出现的多样化先进模型探索不足。为此,本文提出一种稳健的集成学习网格搜索调优框架(RAINER)。RAINER包含完整的特征工程流程:异常值剔除、缺失值填补、特征重构及通过主成分分析(PCA)降维。框架引入新型气象特征以捕捉动态天气模式,并系统评估基于数学的非学习方法及多种机器学习模型,涵盖弱分类器到先进神经网络(如柯尔莫哥洛夫-阿诺德网络,KAN)。通过网格搜索进行超参数调优与集成投票机制,RAINER在真实数据集上取得有前景的结果。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Rainfall prediction remains a persistent challenge due to the highly nonlinear and complex nature of meteorological data. Existing approaches lack systematic utilization of grid search for optimal hyperparameter tuning, relying instead on heuristic or manual selection, frequently resulting in sub-optimal results. Additionally, these methods rarely incorporate newly constructed meteorological features such as differences between temperature and humidity to capture critical weather dynamics. Furthermore, there is a lack of systematic evaluation of ensemble learning techniques and limited exploration of diverse advanced models introduced in the past one or two years. To address these limitations, we propose a robust ensemble learning grid search-tuned framework (RAINER) for rainfall prediction. RAINER incorporates a comprehensive feature engineering pipeline, including outlier removal, imputation of missing values, feature reconstruction, and dimensionality reduction via Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The framework integrates novel meteorological features to capture dynamic weather patterns and systematically evaluates non-learning mathematical-based methods and a variety of machine learning models, from weak classifiers to advanced neural networks such as Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN). By leveraging grid search for hyperparameter tuning and ensemble voting techniques, RAINER achieves promising results within real-world datasets.
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