提出区域感知图卷积网络,提升地理数据预测准确性
RegionGCN: Spatial-Heterogeneity-Aware Graph Convolutional Networks
- 在区域层面建模空间异质性,减少参数量避免过拟合
- 在2016年美国选举投票率预测中,准确率显著优于基线模型
- 适合处理具有复杂空间结构的地理预测任务
理解与预测地理现象需考虑数据生成过程中的空间异质性。尽管神经网络广泛用于地理空间任务,但通常假设空间平稳性,难以应对空间过程异质性。现有地理加权方法在图神经网络上效果不佳,未能提升预测精度。我们认为问题源于大量局部参数带来的过拟合风险。为此,我们提出在区域层面而非个体层面建模空间异质性,大幅减少空间可变参数数量,并设计启发式优化方法在训练中自适应学习区域划分。所提出的区域感知图卷积网络(RegionGCN)应用于基于社会经济属性的县级别2016年美国总统选举投票率预测。结果表明,RegionGCN显著优于基础和地理加权图卷积网络。此外,通过集成学习区域划分,还提供了一种探索非线性关系空间变化的分析工具。本工作推动了地理空间人工智能(GeoAI)在处理空间异质性方面的实践。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Modeling spatial heterogeneity in the data generation process is essential for understanding and predicting geographical phenomena. Despite their prevalence in geospatial tasks, neural network models usually assume spatial stationarity, which could limit their performance in the presence of spatial process heterogeneity. By allowing model parameters to vary over space, several approaches have been proposed to incorporate spatial heterogeneity into neural networks. However, current geographically weighting approaches are ineffective on graph neural networks, yielding no significant improvement in prediction accuracy. We assume the crux lies in the over-fitting risk brought by a large number of local parameters. Accordingly, we propose to model spatial process heterogeneity at the regional level rather than at the individual level, which largely reduces the number of spatially varying parameters. We further develop a heuristic optimization procedure to learn the region partition adaptively in the process of model training. Our proposed spatial-heterogeneity-aware graph convolutional network, named RegionGCN, is applied to the spatial prediction of county-level vote share in the 2016 US presidential election based on socioeconomic attributes. Results show that RegionGCN achieves significant improvement over the basic and geographically weighted GCNs. We also offer an exploratory analysis tool for the spatial variation of non-linear relationships through ensemble learning of regional partitions from RegionGCN. Our work contributes to the practice of Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) in tackling spatial heterogeneity.
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