AI发展正逼近资源与社会承受极限,需重新定义增长逻辑。
Limits to AI Growth: The Ecological and Social Consequences of Scaling
- 从技术、经济、生态、社会四维度分析AI扩张的深层矛盾
- 指出当前扩展模式依赖外部化代价,可持续性存疑
- 适合关注科技伦理、可持续发展的研究者与政策制定者
人工智能技术的加速发展依赖于基础设施的持续扩展,这带来了日益增长的资金投入和自然资源消耗。前沿AI应用已导致金融、环境和社会成本不断上升。尽管支撑AI扩展的要素正接近极限,行业仍持续推进其快速演进与深度渗透。本文通过技术、经济、生态、社会四个视角,结合系统动力学中的“增长极限”等原型模型,剖析AI扩展的动态复杂性,揭示各维度间的交织关系及增长瓶颈。研究表明,产业对限制条件的应对虽能实现暂时扩展,却使大公司获益,而将社会与环境代价外部化。为避免‘超限崩溃’,必须重塑对扩展的认知与规范,转向可持续、有意识的技术进步。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The accelerating development and deployment of AI technologies depend on the continued ability to scale their infrastructure. This has implied increasing amounts of monetary investment and natural resources. Frontier AI applications have thus resulted in rising financial, environmental, and social costs. While the factors that AI scaling depends on reach its limits, the push for its accelerated advancement and entrenchment continues. In this paper, we provide a holistic review of AI scaling using four lenses (technical, economic, ecological, and social) and review the relationships between these lenses to explore the dynamics of AI growth. We do so by drawing on system dynamics concepts including archetypes such as "limits to growth" to model the dynamic complexity of AI scaling and synthesize several perspectives. Our work maps out the entangled relationships between the technical, economic, ecological and social perspectives and the apparent limits to growth. The analysis explains how industry's responses to external limits enables continued (but temporary) scaling and how this benefits Big Tech while externalizing social and environmental damages. To avoid an "overshoot and collapse" trajectory, we advocate for realigning priorities and norms around scaling to prioritize sustainable and mindful advancements.
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