arXiv:2501.18177cs.IRcs.CY2025-01被引 4

用大模型和强化学习模拟逃税如何自发产生,揭示真实社会因素的影响。

Investigating Tax Evasion Emergence Using Dual Large Language Model and Deep Reinforcement Learning Powered Agent-based Simulation

  • 通过双大模型与深度强化学习构建自组织代理仿真系统。
  • 发现执法概率与公共服务效率共同影响逃税出现时间和规模。
  • 适合研究政策设计、行为经济学及数字治理的学者与决策者。

逃税作为非正式经济的最大组成部分,长期存在并具有重大社会经济影响。传统研究多假设逃税行为已存在,忽略其在群体中如何“涌现”。本研究提出一种新型计算框架,利用大语言模型与深度强化学习驱动的基于代理的仿真,让逃税行为在无预设条件下自然演化。实验验证了该框架在复现理论经济行为上的鲁棒性。结果表明:个体人格特质、外部叙事、执法概率以及对公共品供给效率的感知,显著影响非正式经济活动的启动时机与范围。研究强调,高效的公共服务与有力的执法机制相辅相成;单独作用均不足以有效遏制非正式活动。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Tax evasion, usually the largest component of an informal economy, is a persistent challenge over history with significant socio-economic implications. Many socio-economic studies investigate its dynamics, including influencing factors, the role and influence of taxation policies, and the prediction of the tax evasion volume over time. These studies assumed such behavior is given, as observed in the real world, neglecting the "big bang" of such activity in a population. To this end, computational economy studies adopted developments in computer simulations, in general, and recent innovations in artificial intelligence (AI), in particular, to simulate and study informal economy appearance in various socio-economic settings. This study presents a novel computational framework to examine the dynamics of tax evasion and the emergence of informal economic activity. Employing an agent-based simulation powered by Large Language Models and Deep Reinforcement Learning, the framework is uniquely designed to allow informal economic behaviors to emerge organically, without presupposing their existence or explicitly signaling agents about the possibility of evasion. This provides a rigorous approach for exploring the socio-economic determinants of compliance behavior. The experimental design, comprising model validation and exploratory phases, demonstrates the framework's robustness in replicating theoretical economic behaviors. Findings indicate that individual personality traits, external narratives, enforcement probabilities, and the perceived efficiency of public goods provision significantly influence both the timing and extent of informal economic activity. The results underscore that efficient public goods provision and robust enforcement mechanisms are complementary; neither alone is sufficient to curtail informal activity effectively.

行为模拟逃税研究智能代理政策分析

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