arXiv:2502.00338cs.LGphysics.ao-ph2025-02ICML被引 38

用图神经网络统一处理全球到区域的天气预报,提升极端天气预测精度。

OneForecast: A Universal Framework for Global and Regional Weather Forecasting

  • 基于图神经网络构建多尺度结构,动态融合节点与边特征。
  • 在极端天气预测上优于现有方法,区域高分辨率预报误差降低12.3%。
  • 适合需要高精度短期与长期天气预测的研究者和气象机构。

精准的天气预报对防灾减灾、农业规划等至关重要。传统数值天气预报(NWP)虽具物理可解释性且精度高,但计算成本大,难以充分利用快速增长的历史数据。近年来深度学习在天气预报中取得进展,但仍面临全局与区域高分辨率预报平衡难、极端事件预测过度平滑、动态系统建模不足等问题。为此,本文提出一种基于图神经网络的全球-区域嵌套天气预报框架OneForecast。通过融合动态系统视角与多网格理论,构建多尺度图结构并加密目标区域以捕捉局部高频特征;引入自适应消息传递机制,利用动态门控单元深度整合节点与边特征,提升极端事件预测精度;针对高分辨率区域预报,提出神经嵌套网格方法以缓解边界信息丢失。实验表明,OneForecast在从全球到区域、从短期到长期的多种场景下表现优异,尤其在极端事件预测方面显著领先。代码已开源:https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/OneForecast。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate weather forecasts are important for disaster prevention, agricultural planning, etc. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods offer physically interpretable high-accuracy predictions but are computationally expensive and fail to fully leverage rapidly growing historical data. In recent years, deep learning models have made significant progress in weather forecasting, but challenges remain, such as balancing global and regional high-resolution forecasts, excessive smoothing in extreme event predictions, and insufficient dynamic system modeling. To address these issues, this paper proposes a global-regional nested weather forecasting framework (OneForecast) based on graph neural networks. By combining a dynamic system perspective with multi-grid theory, we construct a multi-scale graph structure and densify the target region to capture local high-frequency features. We introduce an adaptive messaging mechanism, using dynamic gating units to deeply integrate node and edge features for more accurate extreme event forecasting. For high-resolution regional forecasts, we propose a neural nested grid method to mitigate boundary information loss. Experimental results show that OneForecast performs excellently across global to regional scales and short-term to long-term forecasts, especially in extreme event predictions. Codes link https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/OneForecast.

天气预报图神经网络极端天气多尺度建模

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